Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg v Arminia Bielefeld

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 4–1 Arminia Bielefeld

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 40.90%2.45fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%41.05%40.86%43.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.232.242.3848.31%44.86%44.74%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 33.04%3.03fair odd
EV +0.766%
Edge +0.251%
Kelly +0.374%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.87%33.06%33.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.852.833.0538.46%35.09%35.34%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.06%3.84fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.824%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%26.07%26.08%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.553.7530.30%28.38%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 40.90%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 33.04%; Draw: 26.06%. For Arminia Bielefeld (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.03. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.766%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.84%E -4.97%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV +0.766%E +0.251%K +0.374%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.49%EV -8.39%E -3.74%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -0.886%E -0.295%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.79%EV -3.83%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 14:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.49%EV -8.39%E -3.74%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -0.886%E -0.295%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.79%EV -3.83%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 14:45
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -2.54%E -0.860%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.27%E -0.604%K -0.824%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.67%EV -7.16%E -3.15%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -2.54%E -0.860%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -2.54%E -0.860%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 18:25
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.67%EV -2.66%E -1.12%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.38%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.95%EV -2.79%E -0.747%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 08:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 08:15
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -13.29%E -6.27%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.08%E -2.92%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -10.08%E -2.92%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 18:20
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -14.93%E -7.18%K -13.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 17:50
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.83%EV -4.70%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.03%EV -4.85%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.14%EV -5.13%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -4.85%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -4.85%E -1.68%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -5.84%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 18:25
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.84%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.84%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -15.34%E -7.41%K -14.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.98%EV -5.84%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.69%E -3.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -15.34%E -7.41%K -14.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.98%EV -5.84%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.69%E -3.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 18:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.66%EV -15.34%E -7.41%K -14.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.98%EV -5.84%E -2.05%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.36%EV -12.69%E -3.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-29 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.26%EV -7.57%E -3.35%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.19%EV -7.16%E -2.55%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.87%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 18:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.60%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -2.27%E -0.604%K -0.824%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 18:25
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 18:25
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.03%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.00%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 18:25
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 18:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-29 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.00%EV -14.11%E -6.72%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.25%EV -7.49%E -2.68%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -4.87%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 18:25
Suprabets🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.11%EV -4.70%E -2.02%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.86%EV -8.81%E -3.19%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.03%EV -6.44%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 18:20
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.17%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 18:24
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -3.89%E -1.65%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-29 18:25
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.98%E -3.55%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 18:25
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV -6.75%E -2.96%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 18:25
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.01%EV -6.75%E -2.96%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 18:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 18:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 18:15
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 18:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 18:15
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -9.15%E -3.33%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.39%E -3.35%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.69%EV -8.79%E -3.94%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.24%EV -9.81%E -3.59%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.07%EV -9.30%E -2.67%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-29 18:24
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -5.93%E -2.58%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -10.80%E -4.00%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.78%E -2.51%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 18:25
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.02%E -4.56%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.80%E -4.00%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -13.99%E -4.24%K -6.08%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.37%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.57%EV -12.45%E -4.70%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -7.48%E -2.11%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-29 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.51%EV -12.07%E -5.61%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -14.10%E -5.42%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -12.69%E -3.79%K -5.40%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-29 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.95%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.76%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.29%0.1%2026-08-29 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.46I 40.65%NM 40.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.75%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.64%0.1%2026-08-29 18:25
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.49%0.7%2026-08-29 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.01%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.06%1.0%2026-08-29 18:25
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 40.60%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.20%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.20%1.8%2026-08-29 18:25
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 41.17%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.48%2.0%2026-08-29 18:15