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1. FC Nürnberg v Arminia Bielefeld

2026-08-29 18:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 50.56%1.98fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.39%50.49%50.50%52.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.811.821.9559.52%55.26%54.95%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV +0.912%
Edge +0.212%
Kelly +0.276%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.01%23.88%23.42%28.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.853.904.3030.30%25.99%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV +6.49%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.09%
Growth +0.136%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.02%25.63%26.08%27.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.543.554.1030.30%28.27%28.17%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 50.56%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 23.47%; Draw: 25.97%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.10, producing a positive expected value of +6.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -1.41%E -0.723%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -22.56%E -6.84%K -9.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV +6.49%E +1.58%K +2.09%G +0.136%6.0%2026-08-17 12:45
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -4.95%E -2.63%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -6.13%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-17 12:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.11%EV -6.97%E -3.79%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -2.60%E -0.694%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-17 14:44
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-17 12:44
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -7.48%E -4.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 12:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.24%EV -15.06%E -8.96%K -22.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -14.34%E -3.93%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-17 15:04
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -1.44%E -0.342%K -0.448%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-17 12:49
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.71%EV -7.48%E -4.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.01%EV +0.912%E +0.212%K +0.276%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 13:00
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.36%EV -7.98%E -4.39%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.18%EV -11.06%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-17 12:50
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-17 12:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-17 13:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.48%E -4.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-17 12:44
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.67%EV -7.98%E -4.39%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.35%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-17 14:48
Suprabets🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.62%EV -8.49%E -4.69%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.43%EV -8.24%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.95%EV -8.32%E -2.36%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-17 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.48%E -4.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-17 12:44
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -12.00%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.10%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-17 12:45
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.29%EV -7.98%E -4.39%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-17 12:45
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.29%EV -7.98%E -4.39%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -7.30%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -10.39%E -3.01%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-17 12:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.24%EV -13.04%E -7.58%K -18.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.34%EV -16.69%E -4.70%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.42%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-17 12:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-17 12:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-17 12:45
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-17 12:44
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -8.99%E -5.00%K -11.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.48%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-17 12:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.43%EV -13.54%E -7.92%K -19.07%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.43%EV -13.64%E -3.71%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-17 12:43
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -11.52%E -6.58%K -15.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -17.86%E -5.10%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -14.29%E -4.33%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-17 12:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (2 combinations) +1.08%Tipico (DE) 1.95 (51.8%) / Fanatics 4.30 (23.5%) / Tipico (DE) 4.10 (24.7%)Show all 2 combinations
1. FC Nürnberg (Local)Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE)🎯 1.95 (51.8%)Fanatics🎯 4.30 (23.5%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (24.7%)+1.08%
Tipico (DE)🎯 1.95 (51.5%)BetMGM🎯 4.20 (23.9%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.10 (24.5%)+0.521%

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