Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Kaiserslautern v SV Darmstadt 98

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 SV Darmstadt 98

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Prediction 42.40%2.36fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.50%42.40%42.26%43.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.162.152.2549.02%46.23%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit)

Prediction 31.42%3.18fair odd
EV -0.701%
Edge -0.222%
Kelly -0.325%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.26%31.40%31.60%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.953.1637.04%33.94%33.90%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.486%
Kelly -0.663%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.23%26.20%26.14%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.523.503.7530.77%28.41%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local): 42.40%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit): 31.42%; Draw: 26.18%. For SV Darmstadt 98 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.16, with an expected value of -0.701%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -1.82%E -0.486%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 17:30
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -3.13%E -0.847%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 08:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 22:35
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.99%EV -5.03%E -2.25%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.48%EV -0.701%E -0.222%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.53%EV -4.97%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.91%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.63%EV -2.27%E -0.731%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.91%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.63%EV -2.27%E -0.731%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.38%EV -6.31%E -2.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.01%EV -5.10%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.61%EV -7.85%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.59%E -0.834%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.59%E -0.834%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 23:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.13%E -0.847%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 12:40
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 19:10
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 08:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 11:30
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 04:10
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 11:50
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 08:24
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.44%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 22:35
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.44%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.60%EV -7.15%E -3.27%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.10%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.85%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -7.58%E -3.48%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.92%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 11:55
Suprabets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.68%EV -8.00%E -3.69%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.47%EV -4.47%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 12:11
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 16:48
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 16:49
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 08:44
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.31%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.70%EV -9.81%E -3.42%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 11:10
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:44
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:45
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:50
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.97%E -5.22%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.97%E -5.22%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -15.16%E -5.61%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 11:54
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -11.82%E -5.68%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 04:35
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -12.24%E -5.91%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 04:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -12.24%E -5.91%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 04:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.85%EV -12.24%E -5.91%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -13.58%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.65%EV -14.91%E -4.59%K -6.63%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-04 02:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -13.51%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 04:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -13.51%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -13.51%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-04 11:20
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 42.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.92%1.5%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.1%2026-09-04 12:40