Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Kaiserslautern v SV Darmstadt 98

Inicio: 2026-09-05 11:00 UTC

Final: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 SV Darmstadt 98

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Predicción 42.40%2.36momio equitativo
EV -4.61%
Ventaja -2.05%
Kelly -3.69%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.50%42.40%42.26%43.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.042.162.152.2549.02%46.23%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante)

Predicción 31.42%3.18momio equitativo
EV -0.701%
Ventaja -0.222%
Kelly -0.325%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.26%31.40%31.60%32.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.952.953.1637.04%33.94%33.90%31.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.18%3.82momio equitativo
EV -1.82%
Ventaja -0.486%
Kelly -0.663%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.23%26.20%26.14%27.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.523.503.7530.77%28.41%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local): 42.40%; SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante): 31.42%; Empate: 26.18%. Para SV Darmstadt 98 (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.18. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.16, con un valor esperado de -0.701%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -1.82%E -0.486%K -0.663%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 17:30
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -3.13%E -0.847%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 08:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 22:35
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.99%EV -5.03%E -2.25%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.48%EV -0.701%E -0.222%K -0.325%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.53%EV -4.97%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.91%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.63%EV -2.27%E -0.731%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.91%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.63%EV -2.27%E -0.731%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:15
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.38%EV -6.31%E -2.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.01%EV -5.10%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.61%EV -7.85%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.59%E -0.834%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 18:25
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.59%E -0.834%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 23:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.13%E -0.847%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 12:40
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 19:10
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 08:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 11:30
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 04:10
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 11:50
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-03 08:24
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.44%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 22:35
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -10.44%E -3.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.60%EV -7.15%E -3.27%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.10%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.85%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -7.58%E -3.48%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.92%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-03 11:55
Suprabets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.68%EV -8.00%E -3.69%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.47%EV -4.47%E -1.47%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 12:11
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.16%E -1.36%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 04:35
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 16:48
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 16:49
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 08:44
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-03 19:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.31%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.70%EV -9.81%E -3.42%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 11:10
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:05
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -5.73%E -1.91%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -13.60%E -4.12%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:44
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:45
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 07:50
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.01%E -4.29%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.99%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.97%E -5.22%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.87%E -3.06%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 11:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.97%E -5.22%K -9.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -15.16%E -5.61%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 11:54
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -11.82%E -5.68%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 04:35
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -12.24%E -5.91%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 04:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -12.24%E -5.91%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -7.30%E -2.47%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 04:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 41.85%EV -12.24%E -5.91%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -13.58%E -4.94%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.65%EV -14.91%E -4.59%K -6.63%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-04 02:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -13.51%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 04:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -13.51%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.49%EV -13.51%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -9.50%E -3.30%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -9.68%E -2.81%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-03 04:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-09-04 11:20
Matchbook◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.92%1.5%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.62%2.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 42.72%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.1%2026-09-04 12:40