La escuela de los momios

1. FC Kaiserslautern v Arminia Bielefeld

Inicio: 2026-05-08 16:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 Arminia Bielefeld

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Predicción 23.40%4.27momio equitativo
EV +2.95%
Ventaja +0.670%
Kelly +0.867%
Crecimiento +0.026%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.53%23.49%23.41%25.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.553.913.854.4028.17%25.58%25.97%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arminia Bielefeld (Visitante)

Predicción 51.83%1.93momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.803%
Kelly -1.70%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.78%51.71%51.77%53.89%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.791.801.9059.88%55.84%55.56%52.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.77%4.04momio equitativo
EV -1.15%
Ventaja -0.288%
Kelly -0.384%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.99

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.79%24.79%24.82%25.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.703.703.9930.30%27.04%27.03%25.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV +2.95%E +0.670%K +0.867%G +0.026%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.21%EV -7.75%E -4.35%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 16:24
LowVig.ag4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV +2.95%E +0.670%K +0.867%G +0.026%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.21%EV -7.75%E -4.35%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 16:24
1xBet4.34I 23.04%NM 21.85%EV +1.54%E +0.355%K +0.462%G +0.007%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.89%EV -8.78%E -4.99%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.26%EV -3.13%E -0.801%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 16:25
Pinnacle4.24I 23.58%NM 22.83%EV -0.797%E -0.188%K -0.246%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.26%EV -1.15%E -0.288%K -0.384%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-08 16:20
Marathon Bet4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -1.73%E -0.413%K -0.542%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.50%EV -7.23%E -4.04%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.13%EV -7.34%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 16:24
Fanatics4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -4.07%E -0.993%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 16:19
DraftKings4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.07%E -0.993%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.45%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -4.62%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 16:20
BetMGM4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -4.07%E -0.993%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 16:19
Everygame4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88%EV -4.07%E -0.993%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.11%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-08 16:24
Suprabets4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.07%E -0.993%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -6.19%E -3.42%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.49%EV -9.08%E -2.47%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 16:20
FanDuel4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -4.07%E -0.993%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -8.26%E -4.67%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 16:24
Coolbet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.97%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.46%EV -1.53%E -0.803%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.57%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 15:59
Tipico (DE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 16:25
Unibet (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -5.67%E -3.12%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-08 16:24
Bovada4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 16:25
Bet Victor4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -9.30%E -5.31%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -3.38%E -0.866%K -1.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-08 16:23
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -8.26%E -4.67%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:19
888sport4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:19
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:24
888sport (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:20
Mr Green (SE)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:19
SportsBet4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.41%E -1.60%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -9.30%E -5.31%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 16:24
Codere (IT)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -4.12%E -2.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 16:24
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -4.12%E -2.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 16:24
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -4.12%E -2.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 16:24
Betsson3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 16:25
NordicBet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 16:24
theScore Bet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -8.75%E -2.24%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -6.71%E -3.73%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 16:20
Unibet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:24
Unibet (NL)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:25
Grosvenor3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:24
TABtouch3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:24
Casumo3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:24
Unibet (SE)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:25
betPARX3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 16:24
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -9.92%E -2.58%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.73%EV -5.67%E -3.12%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -9.57%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.74%EV -5.67%E -3.12%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.33%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:25
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.79%EV -7.75%E -4.35%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -4.62%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
LeoVegas3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -6.19%E -3.42%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.57%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 16:24
Paddy Power3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -9.30%E -5.31%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-08 16:19
Unibet (FR)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.98%EV -10.85%E -6.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -9.57%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-08 16:24
Coral3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-08 16:19
Neds3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-08 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-08 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-08 16:25
Sky Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -11.09%E -2.92%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.29%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-08 16:19
Betclic (FR)3.78I 26.46%NM 23.61%EV -11.56%E -3.06%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.59%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-08 16:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 22.82%EV -12.26%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.25%EV -13.45%E -8.05%K -20.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.93%EV -18.24%E -5.53%K -7.93%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-08 16:24
PointsBet (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 16:19
Betr (AU)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.74%EV -5.67%E -3.12%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:19
LiveScore Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.87%EV -9.30%E -5.31%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%EV -12.05%E -3.39%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-08 16:25
Virgin Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.87%EV -9.30%E -5.31%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.08%EV -12.05%E -3.39%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-08 16:25
NetBet (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.48%EV -13.43%E -3.63%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.70%EV -12.93%E -7.70%K -19.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -13.29%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-08 16:24
PMU (FR)3.65I 27.40%NM 24.08%EV -14.60%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.81%EV -10.34%E -5.97%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.11%EV -13.29%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-08 16:24
betfred_uk3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -5.15%E -2.82%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-08 16:19
Winamax (FR)3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -15.77%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.14%EV -10.85%E -6.31%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.43%EV -10.81%E -3.00%K -4.16%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-08 16:24
BetRivers3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -16.94%E -4.77%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -2.04%E -1.08%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -9.57%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 15:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.4%2026-05-08 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.4%2026-05-08 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.4%2026-05-08 16:25
Matchbook4.40I 22.73%NM 22.65%1.90I 52.63%NM 52.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.4%2026-05-08 16:24
Smarkets4.30I 23.26%NM 22.85%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.88%1.8%2026-05-08 16:25
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-05-08 16:25