The School of Odds

FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn

2026-08-29 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

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Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

FSV Mainz 05 (Local)

Prediction 55.69%1.80fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.91%55.74%55.70%57.12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.581.661.671.7563%60%60%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

SC Paderborn (Visit)

Prediction 20.55%4.87fair odd
EV +1.33%
Edge +0.270%
Kelly +0.339%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.59%20.57%20.49%21.91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.574.9324%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.76%4.21fair odd
EV +0.031%
Edge +0.007%
Kelly +0.010%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.62%23.69%23.81%24.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.633.923.964.2128%25%25%24%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 56.62%EV -3.11%E -1.79%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.98%EV +1.33%E +0.270%K +0.339%G +0.005%4.21I 23.75%NM 23.40%EV +0.031%E +0.007%K +0.010%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-25 14:35
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.67%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.98%EV -0.313%E -0.065%K -0.081%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.35%EV -1.39%E -0.336%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-25 14:25
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -5.89%E -3.49%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -1.34%E -0.279%K -0.353%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.71%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 17:07
Coolbet1.73I 57.80%NM 56.30%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.51%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.19%EV -0.206%E -0.049%K -0.064%G +0.000%2.7%2026-07-10 14:04
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.94%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.14%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-22 05:55
BetRivers1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 01:59
Bally Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:34
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:34
Casumo1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:34
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:35
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:35
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:40
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:39
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 04:45
betPARX1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 10:05
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.12%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -2.37%E -0.499%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-16 17:31
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.15%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 15:10
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 55.08%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.51%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV -6.15%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 15:09
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.82%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-25 05:00
BetOnline.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 20:05
LowVig.ag1.70I 58.82%NM 55.97%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 20:10
Tipico (DE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.73%EV -7.01%E -4.19%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -2.58%E -0.630%K -0.833%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-06 07:50
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.26%EV -6.45%E -3.84%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -3.40%E -0.723%K -0.918%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 06:00
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 55.89%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -5.45%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.46%EV -3.77%E -0.931%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-13 12:14
betfred_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -5.45%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-10 14:45
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.45%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 15:35
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -10.35%E -6.43%K -16.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -5.45%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-23 06:00
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -6.45%E -3.84%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.61%EV -6.48%E -1.42%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.56%EV -5.43%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-06 13:40
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.70%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-10 15:34
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 54.99%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-10 15:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 15:30
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 15:29
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -7.01%E -4.19%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 14:04
BetUS1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -9.71%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-14 12:59
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -7.01%E -4.19%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-23 05:59
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.01%E -4.19%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -9.71%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-22 21:40
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -7.01%E -4.19%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -10.90%E -2.91%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-11 04:29
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 55.53%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.51%E -1.67%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -9.71%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 05:58
Suprabets1.65I 60.61%NM 55.48%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 23.72%EV -8.28%E -2.15%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-18 15:08
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 55.45%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -8.52%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-13 12:15
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.90%E -2.91%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-19 06:05
betano_uk1.65I 60.61%NM 55.10%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.90%E -2.91%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-19 06:05
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -10.90%E -6.81%K -18.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -10.90%E -2.91%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-07 04:35
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 55.86%EV -10.90%E -6.81%K -18.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -9.56%E -2.17%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.83%EV -10.90%E -2.91%K -3.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-07 04:35
Winamax (DE)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.36%EV -7.56%E -4.56%K -11.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -11.62%E -2.70%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -6.15%E -1.56%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-14 12:59
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 53.91%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -11.62%E -2.70%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -12.09%E -3.27%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-25 15:10
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -11.62%E -2.70%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -7.33%E -1.88%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-22 21:39
DraftKings1.65I 60.61%NM 55.01%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -11.62%E -2.70%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -9.71%E -2.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-07 18:29
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.73%EV -12.02%E -7.61%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -11.62%E -2.70%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.80%EV -12.09%E -3.27%K -4.48%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-25 05:00
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -7.01%E -4.19%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.67%E -3.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-16 23:50
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -9.79%E -6.04%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -13.67%E -3.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -4.96%E -1.24%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-10 15:30
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.05%EV -8.68%E -5.29%K -13.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -13.67%E -3.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -8.52%E -2.21%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-14 12:59
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 55.05%EV -11.46%E -7.21%K -19.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.84%EV -13.67%E -3.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.11%EV -13.75%E -3.79%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-25 04:59
NetBet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.28%EV -12.02%E -7.61%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.79%EV -13.67%E -3.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.93%EV -13.27%E -3.64%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-22 10:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 55.37%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.38%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.25%4.4%2026-07-25 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.47%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.58%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.96%14.5%2026-07-25 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 50.47%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.58%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.96%14.5%2026-07-25 17:50
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 54.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.47%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.53%16.5%2026-07-25 05:00