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Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Prediction 63.49%1.57fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.18%63.50%63.47%65.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.471.5571.43%68.22%68.03%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 16.79%5.96fair odd
EV +4.92%
Edge +0.787%
Kelly +0.937%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.25%16.72%16.72%18.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.595.556.2521.74%17.88%18.02%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.72%5.07fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.280%
Kelly -0.350%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.85%19.78%19.81%21.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.664.755.0023.53%21.47%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 63.49%; Union Berlin (Visit): 16.79%; Draw: 19.72%. For Union Berlin (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.96. 8 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.25, producing a positive expected value of +4.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.94%EV -4.76%E -3.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.58%EV +4.92%E +0.787%K +0.937%G +0.046%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%EV -1.40%E -0.280%K -0.350%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-23 13:29
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.29%EV -7.30%E -5.00%K -15.87%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +4.92%E +0.787%K +0.937%G +0.046%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -3.37%E -0.688%K -0.864%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 13:29
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.55%EV -1.59%E -1.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 16.02%EV +3.24%E +0.527%K +0.629%G +0.020%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.44%EV -4.95%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-23 11:40
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -8.57%E -5.95%K -19.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV +0.722%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.40%E -0.280%K -0.350%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.94%E -5.47%K -17.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV +0.722%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -6.33%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 13:30
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -8.57%E -5.95%K -19.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV +0.722%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -6.33%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 13:29
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -9.84%E -6.93%K -23.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV +0.722%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -5.34%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -11.11%E -7.94%K -27.78%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV +0.722%E +0.120%K +0.144%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -6.33%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 13:29
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -6.03%E -4.07%K -12.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -3.47%E -0.604%K -0.731%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -1.40%E -0.280%K -0.350%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -6.03%E -4.07%K -12.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -3.47%E -0.604%K -0.731%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -6.33%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 11:55
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -7.94%E -5.47%K -17.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -3.47%E -0.604%K -0.731%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -6.33%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 13:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.44%EV -6.67%E -4.53%K -14.18%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.62%EV -4.31%E -0.757%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -1.40%E -0.280%K -0.350%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.28%EV -4.76%E -3.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV -5.99%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%EV -5.34%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 13:05
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -4.76%E -3.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.67%E -1.39%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -13.23%E -3.01%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 12:04
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -4.76%E -3.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.67%E -1.39%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -14.61%E -3.37%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -4.76%E -3.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.67%E -1.39%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -14.61%E -3.37%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -4.76%E -3.17%K -9.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -7.67%E -1.39%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -14.61%E -3.37%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:05
TAB🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.83%EV -6.03%E -4.07%K -12.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -7.67%E -1.39%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -16.19%E -3.81%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 13:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.57%E -5.95%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -11.03%E -2.08%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -9.29%E -2.02%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 12:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.76%EV -6.03%E -4.07%K -12.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -6.33%E -1.33%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -6.03%E -4.07%K -12.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -9.29%E -2.02%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 11:40
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.52%EV -6.67%E -4.53%K -14.18%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.29%E -2.02%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.70%EV -7.94%E -5.47%K -17.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.32%EV -11.87%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.98%EV -10.27%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 12:20
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.57%E -5.95%K -19.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -16.06%E -3.21%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.26%E -2.50%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.06%EV -9.84%E -6.93%K -23.43%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.36%EV -19.42%E -4.05%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -11.26%E -2.50%K -3.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-23 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 61.18%EV -10.48%E -7.43%K -25.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.75%EV -22.78%E -4.95%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.06%EV -15.20%E -3.54%K -4.61%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-23 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.49I 67.11%NM 62.68%5.56I 17.99%NM 16.80%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.53%7.1%2026-08-23 12:00
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 60.83%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.92%16.6%2026-08-23 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 26.37%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.82%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.82%156.2%2026-08-23 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 32.52%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.74%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.74%179.6%2026-08-23 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-23 12:30