Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin

2026-09-05 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Testa a testa

26 bookmaker (10 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Bayer Leverkusen (Casa)

Previsione 63.69%1.57quota equa
EV -1.28%
Vantaggio -0.825%
Kelly -2.32%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.55

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
61.18%63.65%63.54%65.45%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.401.461.461.5571.43%68.35%68.73%64.52%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Union Berlin (Trasferta)

Previsione 16.56%6.04quota equa
EV +3.47%
Vantaggio +0.556%
Kelly +0.661%
Crescita +0.023%

ipotizzando la quota massima 6.25

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
15.25%16.58%16.68%18.75%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
4.605.615.556.2521.74%17.82%18.02%16.00%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 19.75%5.06quota equa
EV -1.23%
Vantaggio -0.247%
Kelly -0.309%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 5.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
18.85%19.77%19.78%21.40%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
4.304.674.755.0023.26%21.42%21.05%20.00%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Per Testa a testa, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stima queste probabilità: Bayer Leverkusen (Casa): 63.69%; Union Berlin (Trasferta): 16.56%; Pareggio: 19.75%. Per Union Berlin (Trasferta), questa stima equivale a una quota decimale equa di 6.04. 3 bookmaker offrono quote superiori a tale livello; la migliore quota disponibile è 6.25, con un valore atteso positivo del +3.47%.

Quote dei bookmaker (26 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.94%EV -4.46%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.58%EV +3.47%E +0.556%K +0.661%G +0.023%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%EV -1.23%E -0.247%K -0.309%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-23 13:29
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.29%EV -7.01%E -4.80%K -15.24%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.25%EV +3.47%E +0.556%K +0.661%G +0.023%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -3.21%E -0.655%K -0.823%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 13:29
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 63.55%EV -1.28%E -0.825%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 16.02%EV +1.82%E +0.295%K +0.353%G +0.006%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.44%EV -4.79%E -0.994%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-23 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -8.28%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.23%E -0.247%K -0.309%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 13:30
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -8.28%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.23%E -0.247%K -0.309%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -7.65%E -5.27%K -16.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-23 13:30
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -8.28%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 13:29
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -9.56%E -6.73%K -22.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -5.19%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -10.83%E -7.74%K -27.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -0.666%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 13:29
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -7.65%E -5.27%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.80%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 13:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.44%EV -6.37%E -4.34%K -13.56%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.62%EV -5.63%E -0.988%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -1.23%E -0.247%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.28%EV -4.46%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV -7.29%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.77%EV -5.19%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 13:05
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -4.46%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.94%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -13.09%E -2.97%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 12:04
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -4.46%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -8.94%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -14.47%E -3.34%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -4.46%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -8.94%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -14.47%E -3.34%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -4.46%E -2.98%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -8.94%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -14.47%E -3.34%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 12:05
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -7.65%E -5.27%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -8.94%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -11.11%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 13:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -8.28%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -12.26%E -2.31%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -9.14%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-23 12:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.76%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -13.08%E -2.49%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -6.17%E -1.30%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -5.74%E -3.88%K -11.95%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -13.08%E -2.49%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -9.14%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 11:40
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.52%EV -6.37%E -4.34%K -13.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -13.08%E -2.49%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.14%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.70%EV -7.65%E -5.27%K -16.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.32%EV -13.08%E -2.49%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.98%EV -10.12%E -2.22%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 12:20
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -8.28%E -5.75%K -18.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -17.22%E -3.44%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.11%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-23 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.06%EV -9.56%E -6.73%K -22.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.36%EV -20.53%E -4.28%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -11.11%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-23 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 61.18%EV -10.20%E -7.23%K -24.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.75%EV -23.84%E -5.18%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.06%EV -15.06%E -3.50%K -4.56%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-23 11:40
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (5)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Kalshi1.49I 67.11%NM 62.68%5.56I 17.99%NM 16.80%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.53%7.1%2026-08-23 12:00
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 60.83%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.92%16.6%2026-08-23 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 26.37%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.82%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.82%156.2%2026-08-23 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 26.37%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.82%1.06I 94.34%NM 36.82%156.2%2026-08-23 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-23 12:30