Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Augsburg v FC Schalke 04

Inicio: 2026-08-29 13:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Augsburg (Local)

Predicción 44.76%2.23momio equitativo
EV -1.98%
Ventaja -0.903%
Kelly -1.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.19

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.96%44.91%44.70%46.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.882.062.052.1953.19%48.51%48.78%45.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Schalke 04 (Visitante)

Predicción 29.85%3.35momio equitativo
EV +1.49%
Ventaja +0.437%
Kelly +0.619%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.44%29.77%29.95%30.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.873.153.133.4034.84%31.76%31.95%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.39%3.94momio equitativo
EV +1.57%
Ventaja +0.392%
Kelly +0.523%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.72%25.32%25.36%26.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.673.654.0029.85%27.24%27.40%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Augsburg (Local): 44.76%; FC Schalke 04 (Visitante): 29.85%; Empate: 25.39%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.94. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.74%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%EV +1.49%E +0.437%K +0.619%G +0.009%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.34%EV -1.48%E -0.381%K -0.513%G +0.000%1.7%2026-07-14 13:00
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81%EV -6.90%E -3.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -0.007%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-14 12:59
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81%EV -6.90%E -3.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -0.007%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-14 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -1.50%E -0.454%K -0.652%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -3.51%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 07:54
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.61%EV -6.90%E -3.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -1.50%E -0.454%K -0.652%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-14 15:24
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -1.50%E -0.454%K -0.652%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-10 17:07
BetOnline.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.15%EV -5.56%E -2.63%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.54%EV -5.29%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.15%EV -5.56%E -2.63%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.54%EV -5.29%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-20 14:15
TAB🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-14 21:19
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 01:59
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:34
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:34
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:35
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:39
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 04:45
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-07 10:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.98%EV -9.59%E -4.75%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -2.99%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-16 17:31
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.29%EV -6.90%E -3.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.25%EV -3.89%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 04:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.23%EV -1.98%E -0.903%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.27%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -3.51%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-28 11:39
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.82%EV -2.87%E -1.32%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.87%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.31%EV +1.57%E +0.392%K +0.523%G +0.008%2.8%2026-07-10 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.33%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.26%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -4.78%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-13 08:19
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -5.98%E -1.90%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-19 04:15
Suprabets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.04%EV -8.69%E -4.26%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.36%EV -6.57%E -2.10%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.60%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-19 04:12
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.40%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +1.57%E +0.392%K +0.523%G +0.008%4.9%2026-07-10 14:15
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:30
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:29
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.75%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.63%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 15:29
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.51%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 14:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.51%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 14:14
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.51%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 14:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-13 08:20
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -4.78%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-06 08:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-13 20:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.20%EV -11.38%E -5.75%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -12.40%E -3.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-07 04:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.20%EV -11.38%E -5.75%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.94%EV -12.40%E -3.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-07 04:35
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -6.90%E -3.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -7.32%E -2.00%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-13 10:40
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.12%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.22%EV -12.40%E -3.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-06 11:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.06%EV -10.48%E -5.24%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -9.86%E -2.78%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-13 20:10
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -6.01%E -2.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -4.78%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-14 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -3.51%E -0.923%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-10 14:15
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -4.78%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-10 14:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.03%EV -6.90%E -3.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.53%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-13 08:19
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-01 10:34
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.24%E -4.02%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-01 10:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.08%EV -12.72%E -6.52%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -11.95%E -4.05%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -11.13%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-13 08:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.53%EV -11.82%E -6.00%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.04%EV -12.84%E -4.40%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -12.40%E -3.59%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-13 08:19
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.61%EV -12.72%E -6.52%K -13.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -13.44%E -4.63%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%EV -4.78%E -1.27%K -1.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-06 08:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.12%EV -15.85%E -8.43%K -18.01%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 29.56%EV -14.33%E -4.99%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.32%EV -14.94%E -4.46%K -6.36%G +0.000%17.9%2026-07-16 06:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%6.5%2026-07-21 11:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.31%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%6.5%2026-07-21 11:48
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%9.7%2026-07-21 11:49
Smarkets1.98I 50.51%NM 43.44%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.50%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.06%16.3%2026-07-16 04:45