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Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Augsburg (Local)

Prediction 23.24%4.30fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.307%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.58%23.24%23.24%24.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.954.004.3628.17%25.31%25.00%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 54.12%1.85fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%54.14%54.15%55.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.731.731.8061.73%57.87%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.64%4.42fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.296%
Kelly -0.384%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.65%22.62%22.61%23.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.114.204.3625.97%24.31%23.81%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Augsburg (Local): 23.24%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 54.12%; Draw: 22.64%. For Augsburg (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.36, producing a positive expected value of +1.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 22.61%EV +1.34%E +0.307%K +0.398%G +0.005%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77%EV -2.59%E -1.44%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 22.61%EV -1.29%E -0.296%K -0.384%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-30 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV -0.057%E -0.013%K -0.017%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -4.21%E -2.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.58%EV -2.65%E -0.616%K -0.803%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -4.71%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.24%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 13:40
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -2.59%E -1.44%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 15:45
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.65%EV -4.21%E -2.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 14:10
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -2.65%E -0.616%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 13:40
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.36%EV -5.84%E -3.35%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -2.65%E -0.616%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:00
Betr (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 15:45
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 14:09
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.08%EV -8.54%E -5.05%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -2.65%E -0.616%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.38%E -3.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.44%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 13:40
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.38%E -3.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.44%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 14:14
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -6.38%E -3.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -6.38%E -3.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 14:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -6.38%E -3.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 14:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.46%E -4.36%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -9.44%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 13:40
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.29%E -3.03%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 14:10
Sky Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -6.38%E -3.69%K -8.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 13:40
Betclic (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.35%E -2.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.03%EV -9.08%E -5.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -9.44%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 13:40
LeoVegas🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -10.52%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.57%EV -8.00%E -4.71%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -9.44%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 14:10
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.68%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.00%E -4.71%K -11.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.10%EV -15.16%E -4.15%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.63%EV -11.25%E -6.86%K -17.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -10.57%E -2.68%K -3.58%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-30 13:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.59%EV -16.33%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.70%EV -9.08%E -5.41%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.70%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-30 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.31%EV -17.49%E -4.93%K -6.86%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.27%EV -12.33%E -7.61%K -19.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.42%EV -12.84%E -3.33%K -4.50%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-30 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.27%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.39%7.1%2026-08-30 17:30
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%1.63I 61.35%NM 52.82%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%16.2%2026-08-30 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.93%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%176.1%2026-08-30 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%1.10I 90.91%NM 32.93%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.54%176.1%2026-08-30 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.75%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%179.5%2026-08-30 15:20