Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

USL Dunkerque v Montpellier

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:00 UTC

Final: USL Dunkerque 0–1 Montpellier

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USL Dunkerque (Local)

Prediction 41.74%2.40fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.83%41.70%41.81%43.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.232.3348.78%45.07%44.84%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montpellier (Visit)

Prediction 31.68%3.16fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.582%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%31.59%31.60%33.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.892.903.1036.36%34.59%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -0.885%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%26.71%26.59%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.383.403.6431.75%29.56%29.41%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: USL Dunkerque (Local): 41.74%; Montpellier (Visit): 31.68%; Draw: 26.59%. For Montpellier (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.80%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.40%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 14:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.40%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 14:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-21 17:14
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-21 17:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-21 17:34
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.21%EV -4.84%E -2.12%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.35%EV -2.75%E -0.897%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.44%EV -3.22%E -0.885%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 17:54
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 17:29
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 17:54
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 17:15
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 17:15
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:20
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:20
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.98%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -5.60%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.41%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -6.41%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.89%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.65%EV -7.74%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 17:38
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 17:19
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.11%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 14:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -7.35%E -3.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 17:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -7.35%E -3.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-21 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 17:54
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -8.77%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 17:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -1.80%E -0.582%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:24
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 17:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 14:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 14:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.32%EV -9.43%E -4.35%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -7.51%E -2.57%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 17:54
Suprabets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.09%EV -9.85%E -4.56%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 31.24%EV -7.82%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.66%EV -9.34%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 17:19
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -10.27%E -4.78%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -1.80%E -0.582%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 17:25
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -10.27%E -4.78%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 17:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.96%EV -10.27%E -4.78%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-21 17:19
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:49
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-21 17:25
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -14.44%E -7.04%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-21 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.29%0.1%2026-08-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-08-21 17:54