Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

USL Dunkerque v Montpellier

Inicio: 2026-08-21 18:00 UTC

Final: USL Dunkerque 0–1 Montpellier

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

USL Dunkerque (Local)

Predicción 41.74%2.40momio equitativo
EV -2.76%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -2.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.83%41.70%41.81%43.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.222.232.3348.78%45.07%44.84%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Montpellier (Visitante)

Predicción 31.68%3.16momio equitativo
EV -1.80%
Ventaja -0.582%
Kelly -0.859%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.60%31.59%31.60%33.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.892.903.1036.36%34.59%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.59%3.76momio equitativo
EV -3.22%
Ventaja -0.885%
Kelly -1.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.67%26.71%26.59%28.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.383.403.6431.75%29.56%29.41%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: USL Dunkerque (Local): 41.74%; Montpellier (Visitante): 31.68%; Empate: 26.59%. Para Montpellier (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.16. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.10, con un valor esperado de -1.80%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.40%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 14:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.40%EV -2.76%E -1.18%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-21 14:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-21 17:14
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-21 17:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.01%E -1.74%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-21 17:34
Pinnacle🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.21%EV -4.84%E -2.12%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.35%EV -2.75%E -0.897%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.44%EV -3.22%E -0.885%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 17:54
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 17:29
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 17:54
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 17:19
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 17:15
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 17:15
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:20
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:20
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-21 12:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -6.09%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -13.59%E -4.18%K -6.04%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 17:10
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.98%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.42%EV -5.60%E -1.88%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.60%EV -6.41%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-21 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -6.41%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.89%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.65%EV -7.74%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-21 17:38
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -9.72%E -3.41%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 17:19
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.11%EV -6.93%E -3.11%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.94%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 14:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -7.35%E -3.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 17:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -7.35%E -3.31%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-21 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.28%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 17:54
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -8.77%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 17:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -1.80%E -0.582%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -14.92%E -4.66%K -6.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:24
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 17:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -11.31%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 14:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.03%EV -8.18%E -3.72%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.02%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -16.25%E -5.16%K -7.56%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-21 14:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.32%EV -9.43%E -4.35%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -7.51%E -2.57%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 17:54
Suprabets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.09%EV -9.85%E -4.56%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 31.24%EV -7.82%E -2.69%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.66%EV -9.34%E -2.74%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 17:19
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -10.27%E -4.78%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -1.80%E -0.582%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 17:25
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.95%EV -10.27%E -4.78%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.28%EV -3.39%E -1.11%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -8.27%E -2.40%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 17:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.96%EV -10.27%E -4.78%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -10.93%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-21 17:19
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-21 17:49
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -6.94%E -1.98%K -2.78%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -12.35%E -5.88%K -11.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -12.26%E -3.72%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-21 17:25
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.58%EV -14.44%E -7.04%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -12.89%E -4.69%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -9.60%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-21 17:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.27%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.29%0.1%2026-08-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Matchbook◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.28%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-21 17:54
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.13%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-08-21 17:54