Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Stade Lavallois v Red Star

Inicio: 2026-09-04 18:00 UTC

Final: Stade Lavallois 1–2 Red Star

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Stade Lavallois (Local)

Predicción 30.90%3.24momio equitativo
EV -2.04%
Ventaja -0.642%
Kelly -0.938%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.67%30.95%30.89%32.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.952.953.1736.36%33.85%33.90%31.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Red Star (Visitante)

Predicción 39.99%2.50momio equitativo
EV -4.02%
Ventaja -1.67%
Kelly -2.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.81%39.98%40.08%41.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.322.302.4045.45%43.18%43.48%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.10%3.44momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.308%
Kelly -0.437%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.49%29.07%29.04%31.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.183.203.4033.90%31.41%31.25%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Stade Lavallois (Local): 30.90%; Red Star (Visitante): 39.99%; Empate: 29.10%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.44. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.40, con un valor esperado de -1.05%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.37%EV -2.04%E -0.642%K -0.938%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.63%EV -5.22%E -2.20%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.00%EV -3.38%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 12:00
BetUS🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.62%EV -2.96%E -0.944%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.06%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.31%EV -4.54%E -1.38%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 09:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 09:44
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -4.20%E -1.35%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -14.14%E -4.79%K -7.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 10:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.55%EV -4.82%E -1.56%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.04%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 09:44
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.52%EV -5.13%E -1.67%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%EV -7.22%E -3.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.10%EV -6.29%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 11:50
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.60%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.24%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 09:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.82%EV -5.62%E -2.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 09:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.74%E -1.88%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.82%EV -5.62%E -2.38%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 09:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -6.05%E -1.99%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.37%EV -7.62%E -3.30%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.96%EV -6.29%E -1.95%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -1.05%E -0.308%K -0.437%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 05:25
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 11:24
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 11:28
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 05:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 11:34
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 11:32
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 11:35
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 11:50
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 11:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 11:49
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.46%EV -7.22%E -3.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:40
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.46%EV -7.22%E -3.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:40
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.29%E -2.43%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 11:51
Suprabets🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 30.71%EV -8.53%E -2.88%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.87%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 29.42%EV -10.07%E -3.26%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 12:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -8.84%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -1.05%E -0.308%K -0.437%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 05:30
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.84%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 11:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.84%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -8.84%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 09:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -8.84%E -2.99%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 39.57%EV -8.42%E -3.67%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.71%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 09:49
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:44
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -4.02%E -1.67%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 05:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 05:30
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.30%EV -6.02%E -2.56%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 09:55
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 11:34
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 14:35
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -12.01%E -5.46%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 05:29
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -12.01%E -5.46%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 05:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -12.01%E -5.46%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 05:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -12.01%E -5.46%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 05:25
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.38%E -3.58%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -12.01%E -5.46%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-04 05:29
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 05:30
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -11.00%E -3.82%K -5.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.02%E -4.45%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 11:35
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -8.02%E -3.49%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 05:45
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -13.47%E -4.81%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -12.01%E -5.46%K -10.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -12.69%E -4.23%K -6.34%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-04 07:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -15.02%E -5.46%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.81%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 05:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -15.02%E -5.46%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.81%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 05:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -15.02%E -5.46%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.81%EV -8.82%E -3.87%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.01%EV -11.23%E -3.68%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 05:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-09-04 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-09-04 11:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-09-04 11:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-09-04 11:30
Matchbook◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-09-04 14:25