Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stade Lavallois v Boulogne

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Stade Lavallois 2–1 Boulogne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stade Lavallois (Local)

Prediction 52.57%1.90fair odd
EV -4.85%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -5.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.52%52.63%52.56%55.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.741.8161.73%57.44%57.47%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boulogne (Visit)

Prediction 21.53%4.65fair odd
EV +0.102%
Edge +0.022%
Kelly +0.028%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.96%21.44%21.54%22.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.324.334.6526.67%23.16%23.09%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.90%3.86fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.562%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.28%25.93%25.90%27.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.543.603.8032.26%28.27%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stade Lavallois (Local): 52.57%; Boulogne (Visit): 21.53%; Draw: 25.90%. For Boulogne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.645. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.650, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.102%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.86%EV -7.47%E -4.25%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV +0.102%E +0.022%K +0.028%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.76%EV -4.68%E -1.27%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 17:50
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.40%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 20.72%EV -2.91%E -0.646%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.88%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 17:54
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 17:23
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 17:53
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 13:34
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.95%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 17:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.95%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 17:29
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.57%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -8.05%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 17:48
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.44%EV -14.83%E -9.16%K -23.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -3.13%E -0.695%K -0.894%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-09 17:30
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -2.87%E -0.765%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 17:29
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -5.46%E -1.50%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 17:24
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:29
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -5.28%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -6.36%E -1.46%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -6.36%E -1.46%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -6.36%E -1.46%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -11.68%E -6.95%K -17.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.84%EV -6.36%E -1.46%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 17:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -6.79%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -4.16%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 17:25
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.79%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-09 17:24
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%EV -9.05%E -5.23%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.02%EV -6.79%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -10.64%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 17:19
Suprabets🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.83%EV -9.58%E -5.57%K -13.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -6.79%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.19%EV -10.12%E -2.92%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 17:20
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -6.79%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-09 17:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.98%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.98%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 17:29
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.98%EV -4.85%E -2.68%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.61%EV -7.47%E -4.25%K -9.83%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.86%EV -7.27%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:38
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -6.95%E -3.93%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 17:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.27%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -1.57%E -0.414%K -0.562%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.27%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -1.57%E -0.414%K -0.562%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 17:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.11%EV -9.05%E -5.23%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.58%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.28%EV -7.43%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -8.51%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 17:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.95%E -3.93%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -8.51%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 17:30
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.08%EV -6.42%E -3.61%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -8.51%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -8.05%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:25
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.08%EV -6.42%E -3.61%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -8.51%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -8.05%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:24
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.91%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -8.51%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-09 17:39
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.47%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -9.34%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 17:29
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:30
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.98%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:29
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -8.53%E -4.90%K -11.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.98%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -10.64%E -3.08%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-09 17:30
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -8.00%E -4.57%K -10.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -15.82%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-09 17:25
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 13:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 13:34
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -9.59%E -2.28%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 13:35
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -6.95%E -3.93%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -13.89%E -3.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.75%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:39
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -10.63%E -6.25%K -15.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -13.89%E -3.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-09 17:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.52%EV -9.05%E -5.23%K -12.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.85%EV -19.27%E -5.14%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -19.71%E -6.36%K -9.38%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-09 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-05-09 17:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-05-09 17:49
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.31%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.09%1.1%2026-05-09 17:49
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.17%2.2%2026-05-09 17:54