Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Bastia v Saint Etienne

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 18:00 UTC

Final: SC Bastia 2–0 Saint Etienne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Bastia (Local)

Prediction 21.69%4.61fair odd
EV +1.94%
Edge +0.412%
Kelly +0.523%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.99%21.72%21.77%24.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.124.204.7027.03%24.30%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Etienne (Visit)

Prediction 51.94%1.93fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.79%51.87%51.86%53.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.801.8859.88%55.68%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.38%3.79fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.08%26.41%26.37%27.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.453.453.6432.26%28.98%28.99%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Bastia (Local): 21.69%; Saint Etienne (Visit): 51.94%; Draw: 26.38%. For SC Bastia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV +1.94%E +0.412%K +0.523%G +0.010%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.78%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV +1.94%E +0.412%K +0.523%G +0.010%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.78%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 17:45
Pinnacle🎯4.66I 21.46%NM 20.57%EV +1.07%E +0.229%K +0.292%G +0.003%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.95%EV -6.00%E -3.31%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.48%EV -4.52%E -1.25%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 17:50
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -2.40%E -0.534%K -0.686%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.66%EV -8.07%E -4.56%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 17:39
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -2.40%E -0.534%K -0.686%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -3.49%E -0.784%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -8.59%E -4.88%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 17:50
BetUS🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.75%EV -3.49%E -0.784%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.48%EV -8.59%E -4.88%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.77%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 17:50
DraftKings🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.57%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 17:40
Bovada🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -4.57%E -1.04%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -8.59%E -4.88%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 17:54
1xBet🎯4.37I 22.88%NM 21.73%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.18%EV -5.48%E -3.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.09%EV -3.99%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 17:50
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.20%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 17:49
SportsBet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:40
888sport🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:40
William Hill🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:45
Everygame🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 17:50
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.94%EV -6.09%E -1.41%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.40%EV -10.15%E -5.87%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-18 17:40
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV -6.74%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -8.07%E -4.56%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -7.82%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.33%EV -5.48%E -3.01%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 17:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -7.82%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.60%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.22%EV -7.82%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.37%EV -12.23%E -7.24%K -17.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.41%EV -6.37%E -1.79%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-18 17:39
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 17:19
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:30
theScore Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -8.07%E -4.56%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-18 17:30
Bet Right🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.55%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:31
Suprabets🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.63%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.20%EV -9.63%E -5.54%K -13.02%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.17%EV -8.48%E -2.44%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-18 17:36
Unibet (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.42%EV -12.23%E -7.24%K -17.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.08%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-18 17:55
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.65%EV -10.15%E -5.87%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-18 17:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.53%EV -8.91%E -2.12%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.64%EV -13.27%E -7.94%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.82%EV -18.24%E -5.88%K -8.68%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-18 17:40
Betsson🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -9.99%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-18 17:25
NordicBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -9.99%E -2.41%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-18 17:24
Codere (IT)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -11.08%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.42%EV -8.07%E -4.56%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 17:30
PlayUp🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -11.08%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.02%EV -8.07%E -4.56%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -11.64%E -3.48%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-18 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -11.08%E -2.70%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.79%EV -10.15%E -5.87%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-18 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -13.25%E -3.31%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -13.25%E -3.31%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 17:25
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -13.25%E -3.31%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -6.52%E -3.62%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-18 17:44
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.10%EV -13.25%E -3.31%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.11%EV -10.15%E -5.87%K -13.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-18 17:15
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -15.42%E -3.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-18 17:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -15.42%E -3.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-18 17:20
Coral🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -15.42%E -3.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-18 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -15.42%E -3.95%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -9.11%E -5.21%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-18 17:20
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:04
LeoVegas🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:05
BetRivers🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:05
Grosvenor🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:04
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:05
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:04
TABtouch🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:05
betPARX🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -18.67%E -4.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -2.36%E -1.26%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.00%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 17:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -19.75%E -5.34%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.79%EV -3.40%E -1.83%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 17:04
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -19.75%E -5.34%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.79%EV -3.40%E -1.83%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-18 17:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -19.75%E -5.34%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -3.92%E -2.12%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -10.32%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-18 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-04-18 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-04-18 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-04-18 17:50
Matchbook4.80I 20.83%NM 20.63%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.41%1.0%2026-04-18 17:50
Smarkets4.70I 21.28%NM 20.79%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.40%2.4%2026-04-18 17:50