La escuela de los momios

Red Star v Montpellier

Inicio: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Final: Red Star 1–1 Montpellier

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Red Star (Local)

Predicción 52.64%1.90momio equitativo
EV -5.24%
Ventaja -2.91%
Kelly -6.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.83%52.62%52.60%54.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.751.751.8059.88%57.04%57.14%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Montpellier (Visitante)

Predicción 22.18%4.51momio equitativo
EV -0.428%
Ventaja -0.095%
Kelly -0.123%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.49

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.13%22.16%22.23%23.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.124.104.4926.67%24.28%24.39%22.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.18%3.97momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -0.726%
Kelly -0.980%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.43%25.22%25.17%26.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.603.603.8631.25%27.76%27.78%25.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -3.05%E -0.793%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 17:54
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.75%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 17:43
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 04:50
Svenska Spel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-04 04:50
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 17:39
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 17:44
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 17:55
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 51.99%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -7.97%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 17:44
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.99%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.30%EV -7.97%E -1.92%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 17:44
BetRivers1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:50
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:50
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:50
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:50
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:55
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:55
Unibet1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:55
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 04:55
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-04 05:05
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -6.82%E -3.85%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -4.31%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 17:45
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.54%EV -6.82%E -3.85%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 17:35
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -6.82%E -3.85%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 17:55
Betway1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -6.82%E -3.85%K -8.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:34
LowVig.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.31%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 17:44
BetOnline.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 53.41%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.31%E -1.14%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 17:45
Betclic (FR)1.76I 56.82%NM 52.60%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.09%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 17:43
LiveScore Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 51.66%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-04 04:51
LeoVegas (SE)1.76I 56.82%NM 51.66%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-04 04:51
Virgin Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 51.66%EV -7.35%E -4.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-04 04:51
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 54.26%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.15%EV -0.428%E -0.095%K -0.123%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.60%EV -2.80%E -0.726%K -0.980%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 17:50
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.45%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -3.98%E -0.918%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 17:53
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 17:34
Codere (IT)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.09%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -10.61%E -2.99%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 17:44
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-09 17:44
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-09 17:44
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-09 17:44
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-09 17:44
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.51%E -3.46%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.39%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.51%E -3.46%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.39%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 17:40
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.51%E -3.46%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.39%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 17:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.87%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.51%E -3.46%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.39%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-09 17:39
Unibet (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.70%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.83%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:45
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:44
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -8.40%E -4.83%K -11.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-09 17:44
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.03%EV -8.93%E -5.16%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -2.42%E -0.551%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.73%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 17:54
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.93%E -5.16%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-09 17:54
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -8.93%E -5.16%K -12.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-09 17:34
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 51.22%EV -8.93%E -5.16%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.72%EV -13.51%E -3.46%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -14.39%E -4.23%K -5.99%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-09 17:34
NetBet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.44%EV -9.45%E -5.50%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -8.09%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 17:54
Tipico (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -9.45%E -5.50%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 17:55
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 52.60%EV -9.45%E -5.50%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -11.29%E -2.82%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -8.09%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-09 17:44
Bovada1.71I 58.48%NM 54.08%EV -9.98%E -5.84%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.53%E -0.812%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 17:48
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 54.08%EV -9.98%E -5.84%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -3.53%E -0.812%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -5.57%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 17:45
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 53.50%EV -9.98%E -5.84%K -14.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -6.86%E -1.63%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -6.83%E -1.85%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:55
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 53.81%EV -10.51%E -6.18%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -3.98%E -0.918%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -8.09%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 17:44
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.00%EV -10.51%E -6.18%K -15.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -9.08%E -2.21%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.35%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 00:04
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 51.73%EV -10.51%E -6.18%K -15.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -15.73%E -4.14%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -11.87%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 17:14
Suprabets1.69I 59.17%NM 53.88%EV -11.03%E -6.53%K -15.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -4.64%E -1.08%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.95%EV -8.09%E -2.22%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 17:46
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 50.83%EV -12.09%E -7.24%K -18.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -16.84%E -4.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.53%EV -19.42%E -6.07%K -8.83%G +0.000%17.8%2026-05-09 17:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-05-09 17:55
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 53.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11%0.8%2026-05-09 17:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04%1.1%2026-05-09 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 53.46%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04%1.1%2026-05-09 17:55
Smarkets1.84I 54.35%NM 53.00%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.33%2.5%2026-05-09 17:54