Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pau FC v Sochaux

Inicio: 2026-09-04 18:00 UTC

Final: Pau FC 1–1 Sochaux

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pau FC (Local)

Predicción 40.65%2.46momio equitativo
EV -3.67%
Ventaja -1.55%
Kelly -2.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.59%40.73%40.65%42.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.082.242.252.3748.08%44.69%44.44%42.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sochaux (Visitante)

Predicción 29.89%3.35momio equitativo
EV -0.154%
Ventaja -0.046%
Kelly -0.066%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.83%29.80%29.88%30.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.123.103.3434.72%32.03%32.26%29.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.46%3.39momio equitativo
EV +0.160%
Ventaja +0.047%
Kelly +0.067%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.78%29.47%29.48%32.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.133.153.4035.09%31.94%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pau FC (Local): 40.65%; Sochaux (Visitante): 29.89%; Empate: 29.46%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.39. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.160%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +0.160%E +0.047%K +0.067%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -2.79%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 14:05
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -10.58%E -4.81%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -2.79%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -10.58%E -4.81%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -2.79%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 07:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -2.79%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-03 14:05
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -2.79%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-01 08:00
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -12.61%E -5.86%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -2.79%E -0.844%K -1.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 08:05
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -4.48%E -1.91%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 04:30
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -4.26%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-03 14:10
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.08%EV -7.32%E -3.21%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.64%EV -5.53%E -1.75%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 05:53
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -4.94%E -1.55%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:35
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-03 20:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -10.58%E -4.81%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 20:15
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.73%E -1.79%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 11:51
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.98%EV -4.48%E -1.91%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.83%EV -0.154%E -0.046%K -0.066%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.19%EV -6.03%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.63%EV -3.67%E -1.55%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.09%EV -1.05%E -0.317%K -0.455%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.28%EV -6.32%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 13:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -5.70%E -2.46%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:04
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:09
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.50%EV -11.39%E -5.22%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 08:05
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 20:15
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 20:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.80%EV -9.36%E -4.20%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -7.20%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 20:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.22%EV -4.89%E -2.09%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.22%EV -4.89%E -2.09%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.36%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 14:19
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-03 20:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.38%EV -7.73%E -3.41%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -8.82%E -2.89%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 13:20
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 05:50
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -12.61%E -5.86%K -10.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-01 18:04
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 29.41%EV -7.63%E -2.47%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 30.19%EV -11.33%E -3.76%K -5.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 14:16
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:04
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 04:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 20:15
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 20:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 20:15
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -8.54%E -3.80%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-03 20:15
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.25%EV -14.64%E -6.97%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -5.83%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 08:05
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.04%EV -10.58%E -4.81%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.59%EV -13.91%E -4.83%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-04 04:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.30%EV -15.45%E -7.43%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.38%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-01 08:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.30%EV -15.45%E -7.43%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.38%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-01 08:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.30%EV -15.45%E -7.43%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.38%EV -7.33%E -2.36%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -11.62%E -3.87%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-01 08:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -6.51%E -2.83%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -1.35%E -0.409%K -0.587%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -16.04%E -5.63%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.21%1.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.21%1.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.21%1.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.11%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.78%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.08%2.3%2026-09-04 14:35