Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC v Montpellier

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC (Local)

Prediction 32.86%3.04fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.00%32.90%32.90%35.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.752.762.9039.22%36.34%36.17%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montpellier (Visit)

Prediction 40.41%2.47fair odd
EV -0.990%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.49%40.42%40.38%41.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.302.4547.62%43.29%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.72%3.74fair odd
EV +0.218%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.079%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.49%26.68%26.72%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.7533.33%29.29%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pau FC (Local): 32.86%; Montpellier (Visit): 40.41%; Draw: 26.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.218%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.96%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.56%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.49%EV +0.218%E +0.058%K +0.079%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 18:44
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.19%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.44%EV -3.82%E -1.60%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.37%EV -2.45%E -0.673%K -0.926%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-20 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 18:44
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -5.13%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-20 18:40
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -5.68%E -1.98%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.75%EV -3.42%E -1.43%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 18:50
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.18%EV -7.65%E -2.72%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.19%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:45
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-20 18:55
Bovada🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.24%EV -8.64%E -3.11%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.35%EV -7.46%E -3.26%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 18:45
BetUS🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.24%EV -8.64%E -3.11%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.35%EV -7.46%E -3.26%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 18:10
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-20 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-20 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.00%EV -7.00%E -2.47%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.08%EV -5.84%E -2.51%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.91%EV -7.27%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-20 18:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.80%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 18:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.80%E -2.26%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-20 18:45
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -7.33%E -2.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.13%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-20 18:40
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.73%EV -7.33%E -2.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.13%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-20 18:45
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -14.56%E -5.60%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -0.990%E -0.404%K -0.683%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 15:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.56%EV -7.33%E -2.60%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.44%EV -8.26%E -3.64%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 18:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 18:49
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-20 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-20 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-20 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -16.20%E -6.35%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -1.80%E -0.740%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 15:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -16.20%E -6.35%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -1.80%E -0.740%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 15:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -16.20%E -6.35%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -1.80%E -0.740%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 15:25
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.14%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:44
Suprabets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.05%EV -8.26%E -3.64%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.90%EV -9.67%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-20 18:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.95%EV -8.26%E -3.64%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -10.47%E -3.13%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-20 18:45
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 18:45
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.05%E -3.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-20 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -7.86%E -3.45%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.42%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-20 18:39
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-20 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-20 18:39
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-20 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-20 18:40
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-20 18:39
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.19%EV -13.90%E -5.30%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.45%EV -13.11%E -6.10%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.35%EV -11.81%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-20 18:39
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -13.14%E -4.04%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.6%2026-03-20 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -15.13%E -7.21%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -19.83%E -6.61%K -9.91%G +0.000%17.3%2026-03-20 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-03-20 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-03-20 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-03-20 18:45
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-03-20 18:50
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-03-20 18:55