La escuela de los momios

Pau FC v Guingamp

Inicio: 2026-04-17 18:00 UTC

Final: Pau FC 2–1 Guingamp

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Pau FC (Local)

Predicción 31.38%3.19momio equitativo
EV -3.98%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -1.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.57%31.46%31.34%33.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.872.903.0637.04%34.90%34.48%32.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Guingamp (Visitante)

Predicción 40.80%2.45momio equitativo
EV -4.11%
Ventaja -1.75%
Kelly -3.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.78%40.72%40.79%41.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.152.282.282.3546.51%43.90%43.86%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.82%3.59momio equitativo
EV -2.63%
Ventaja -0.753%
Kelly -1.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.15%27.83%27.87%29.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.293.303.5034.72%30.42%30.30%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle3.06I 32.68%NM 31.48%EV -3.98%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.99%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.52%EV -2.63%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-17 17:40
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.30%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 17:30
LowVig.ag3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.30%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -6.97%E -3.06%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 17:34
BetOnline.ag3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -4.30%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -6.97%E -3.06%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 17:34
Betclic (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.86%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 17:38
Betsson3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.86%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 17:09
NordicBet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.86%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 17:09
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -5.86%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 16:08
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -5.86%E -1.95%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 13:24
Coolbet2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -7.43%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -2.63%E -0.753%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:19
Unibet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -7.43%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-17 17:40
Tipico (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -7.43%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 17:44
Codere (IT)2.95I 33.90%NM 30.76%EV -7.43%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.88%EV -9.42%E -4.24%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 17:14
Marathon Bet2.93I 34.13%NM 31.83%EV -8.06%E -2.75%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.73%EV -6.56%E -2.87%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 17:49
NetBet (FR)2.92I 34.25%NM 31.12%EV -8.37%E -2.87%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.93%EV -9.42%E -4.24%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-17 17:44
Betr (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 17:19
FanDuel2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 17:19
Bet Victor2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-17 17:53
PointsBet (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 17:20
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 17:34
theScore Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.42%E -1.59%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-17 17:19
888sport2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 17:34
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 17:34
Mr Green (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 17:30
888sport (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-17 17:39
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 17:10
Winamax (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 17:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.76%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-17 16:10
Coral2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.76%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-17 16:09
Ladbrokes (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.76%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-17 16:09
Neds2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.00%E -3.10%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.76%E -4.44%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-17 16:10
betfred_uk2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -9.63%E -3.34%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -6.15%E -2.68%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 17:20
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.31%EV -10.57%E -3.71%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.21%EV -6.56%E -2.87%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 17:52
BetUS2.85I 35.09%NM 32.31%EV -10.57%E -3.71%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.21%EV -6.56%E -2.87%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 17:49
Bet Right2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.57%E -3.71%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -6.81%E -2.03%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-17 17:19
Suprabets2.82I 35.46%NM 32.26%EV -11.51%E -4.08%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.25%EV -7.79%E -3.45%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 27.48%EV -7.92%E -2.39%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 17:54
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.75%EV -6.97%E -3.06%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-17 17:49
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-17 17:19
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.19%E -3.64%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-17 17:49
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-17 17:20
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -12.27%E -5.71%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -10.98%E -3.43%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-17 17:20
Unibet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:40
Unibet (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
Casumo2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
Unibet (NL)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
TABtouch2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
BetRivers2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:40
Grosvenor2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
Svenska Spel2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:40
betPARX2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
ATG (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -4.11%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-17 15:39
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -5.34%E -2.30%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 15:39
LiveScore Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -5.34%E -2.30%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -5.34%E -2.30%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -8.20%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-17 15:40
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -13.71%E -4.99%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -9.59%E -2.95%K -4.26%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-17 17:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 31.60%EV -15.28%E -5.66%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.78%EV -10.23%E -4.65%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.62%EV -19.88%E -6.90%K -10.58%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-17 17:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%1.0%2026-04-17 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%1.0%2026-04-17 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.44%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%1.0%2026-04-17 17:55
Matchbook3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.46%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.20%1.3%2026-04-17 17:49
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-04-17 17:50