Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Nantes v Red Star

Inicio: 2026-08-08 18:45 UTC

Final: Nantes 0–1 Red Star

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Nantes (Local)

Predicción 53.60%1.87momio equitativo
EV -2.46%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.53%53.45%53.60%55.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.671.751.741.8259.88%57.25%57.47%54.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Red Star (Visitante)

Predicción 20.26%4.94momio equitativo
EV +0.097%
Ventaja +0.020%
Kelly +0.025%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.47%20.37%20.21%22.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.414.504.9425.64%22.67%22.22%20.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.14%3.83momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -0.885%
Kelly -1.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.15%26.18%26.19%27.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.483.503.7030.30%28.70%28.57%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Nantes (Local): 53.60%; Red Star (Visitante): 20.26%; Empate: 26.14%. Para Red Star (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.935. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.940, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.097%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.03%EV -4.60%E -2.58%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 19.47%EV +0.097%E +0.020%K +0.025%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.50%EV -5.11%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -2.74%E -0.571%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.28%E -0.885%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.53%EV -2.74%E -0.571%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.28%E -0.885%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-08 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.97%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -3.75%E -0.790%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.57%EV -8.35%E -4.88%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -3.75%E -0.790%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -5.37%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 18:34
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV -6.74%E -3.88%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -4.77%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.28%E -0.885%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -4.77%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.23%EV -3.28%E -0.885%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 18:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -4.77%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.02%EV -7.20%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 18:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -4.77%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 18:29
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -4.77%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 18:38
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.73%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.87%EV -5.78%E -1.24%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 17:39
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.73%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.87%EV -5.78%E -1.24%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 17:39
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.52%EV -6.74%E -3.88%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -6.79%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -7.20%E -2.03%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 18:35
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.32%EV -6.74%E -3.88%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -6.79%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 15:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.93%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -6.79%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.91%EV -6.41%E -1.79%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 18:19
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.45%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -6.79%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 26.80%EV -11.38%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 18:22
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.53%E -1.96%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 14:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 18:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 14:34
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.74%E -3.88%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -5.89%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 14:32
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 14:29
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 16:24
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 16:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.46%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -9.81%E -2.84%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 17:39
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -7.81%E -4.54%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -8.82%E -1.96%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -10.85%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -4.58%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -10.85%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -4.58%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 17:39
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.98%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -10.85%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 14:35
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.56%EV -9.42%E -5.58%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -10.85%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 14:35
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.28%E -4.21%K -9.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -12.26%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 14:33
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -12.26%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 15:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%EV -12.26%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 18:35
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.42%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.58%EV -12.26%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 15:15
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.28%EV -10.49%E -6.28%K -15.66%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.55%EV -12.26%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.17%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 15:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.02%EV -5.14%E -2.90%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -13.88%E -3.27%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.50%E -2.43%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 14:35
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -8.89%E -5.23%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -14.90%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:23
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:19
Grosvenor🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:19
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:19
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.53%EV -2.46%E -1.35%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -16.92%E -4.13%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -11.12%E -3.27%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -20.98%E -5.38%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 14:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -20.98%E -5.38%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%EV -6.21%E -3.55%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -20.98%E -5.38%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -13.73%E -4.16%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.87%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.84%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.28%0.1%2026-08-08 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-08 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.68%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.19%0.5%2026-08-08 18:35
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.09%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61%1.6%2026-08-08 18:40
Matchbook◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.19%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.45%2.2%2026-08-08 18:30