The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Montpellier v Red Star

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montpellier (Local)

Prediction 38.09%2.63fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.31%38.19%38.13%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.5045.45%41.82%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Red Star (Visit)

Prediction 35.41%2.82fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.88%35.24%35.40%36.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.602.602.7540.82%38.44%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.50%3.77fair odd
EV -0.370%
Edge -0.098%
Kelly -0.134%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.97%26.57%26.47%28.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.353.7632.26%29.40%29.85%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montpellier (Local): 38.09%; Red Star (Visit): 35.41%; Draw: 26.50%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.76, with an expected value of -0.370%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -4.77%E -1.91%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -4.61%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-20 06:35
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.51%EV -6.29%E -2.56%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.30%EV -7.58%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.19%EV -0.370%E -0.098%K -0.134%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 12:40
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.51%EV -6.29%E -2.56%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.30%EV -7.58%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.19%EV -0.370%E -0.098%K -0.134%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 12:31
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.17%E -2.33%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 06:35
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.17%E -2.33%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-20 17:10
1xBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.63%EV -7.58%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.42%EV -6.73%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 06:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.63%EV -7.58%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.42%EV -6.73%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 06:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-20 06:39
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -9.71%E -3.81%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -5.93%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-20 15:55
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.23%E -2.76%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 10:05
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.23%E -2.76%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-20 10:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -6.67%E -2.72%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-20 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.94%EV -7.05%E -2.89%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.61%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.94%EV -7.05%E -2.89%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.61%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.09%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.28%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 08:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -7.43%E -3.06%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-20 10:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -6.87%E -2.61%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -4.61%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 07:05
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-21 06:45
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 17:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 17:05
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-20 17:05
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.71%E -3.81%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 06:35
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -9.71%E -3.81%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 06:37
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.58%E -3.57%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 17:11
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -9.34%E -3.92%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 02:20
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -9.34%E -3.92%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -4.40%E -1.63%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 02:19
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -9.34%E -3.92%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 06:35
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -9.34%E -3.92%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 17:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -9.34%E -3.92%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -9.72%E -4.10%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-20 17:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -9.72%E -4.10%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-20 17:09
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.38%EV -10.48%E -4.46%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-20 15:55
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -10.48%E -4.46%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.71%E -3.81%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.91%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-20 06:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.98%EV -10.48%E -4.46%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.73%EV -9.00%E -3.50%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.29%EV -13.35%E -4.08%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-20 10:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%EV -10.48%E -4.46%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.56%EV -11.23%E -3.35%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-20 10:25
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -11.24%E -4.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -15.21%E -4.75%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-20 08:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -11.24%E -4.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -15.21%E -4.75%K -6.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-20 08:35
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -7.23%E -2.76%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.26%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-21 09:38
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.71%E -3.81%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -4.61%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-21 08:50
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -4.61%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-20 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -15.21%E -4.75%K -6.91%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-20 10:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.41%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%EV -7.94%E -3.05%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -15.21%E -4.75%K -6.91%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-20 08:35
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.79%EV -12.38%E -5.38%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.47%EV -13.25%E -5.41%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.74%EV -13.88%E -4.27%K -6.17%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-20 06:52
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.00%EV -14.29%E -6.35%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%EV -9.71%E -3.81%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -12.56%E -3.81%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-20 12:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -14.29%E -6.35%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -11.48%E -4.59%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -17.86%E -5.76%K -8.50%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-20 08:35
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -16.19%E -7.36%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -2.63%E -0.955%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -17.86%E -5.76%K -8.50%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-23 02:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%6.6%2026-10-21 09:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%6.6%2026-10-21 09:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%6.6%2026-10-21 09:05
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 37.85%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%8.3%2026-10-21 08:42