Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Montpellier v Red Star

2026-10-24 12:00 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Montpellier (Local)

Predicción 41.32%2.42momio equitativo
EV -4.96%
Ventaja -2.15%
Kelly -3.81%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.38%41.50%41.25%46.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.932.152.152.3051.81%46.59%46.51%43.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Red Star (Visitante)

Predicción 30.88%3.24momio equitativo
EV +4.99%
Ventaja +1.47%
Kelly +2.08%
Crecimiento +0.104%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.50%30.76%30.91%32.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.043.003.4036.36%32.92%33.33%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.80%3.60momio equitativo
EV -2.71%
Ventaja -0.773%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.67%27.74%27.84%28.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.313.303.5032.26%30.23%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Montpellier (Local): 41.32%; Red Star (Visitante): 30.88%; Empate: 27.80%. Para Red Star (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.24. 10 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.40, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.99%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -19.42%E -9.96%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV +4.99%E +1.47%K +2.08%G +0.104%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-19 12:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:04
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -14.05%E -6.75%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV +1.90%E +0.575%K +0.825%G +0.016%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -2.71%E -0.773%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 12:06
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.80%EV -17.35%E -8.68%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -6.88%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-19 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.80%EV -17.35%E -8.68%K -17.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -2.73%E -0.868%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -6.88%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-19 12:05
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.96%E -2.15%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.49%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-19 12:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.67%EV -18.18%E -9.18%K -18.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-19 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.79%EV -18.59%E -9.44%K -19.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-19 12:05
1xBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.11%EV -8.26%E -3.72%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.55%EV -5.51%E -1.80%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.34%EV -4.93%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 11:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.49%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-19 12:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.20%EV -4.93%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 10:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.04%EV -6.61%E -2.92%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 10:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.04%EV -6.61%E -2.92%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.41%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-19 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.91%EV -20.25%E -10.49%K -21.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.42%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.67%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-19 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.96%E -2.15%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-19 12:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 12:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.49%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 12:15
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-19 12:15
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-19 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-19 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-19 11:19
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-19 11:25
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-19 10:25
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -7.02%E -3.12%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-19 10:30
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.85%EV -9.91%E -4.55%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.23%EV -6.88%E -2.05%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-19 12:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.62%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.37%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 12:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.73%EV -7.85%E -3.52%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-19 11:25
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-19 12:09
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -10.45%E -3.60%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-19 12:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.83%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-19 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.83%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-19 12:00
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.07%E -3.84%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-19 12:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.15%EV -10.33%E -4.76%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.11%EV -11.38%E -3.96%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.73%EV -10.49%E -3.26%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 10:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -11.38%E -3.96%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.83%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-19 12:05
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -9.09%E -4.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -11.38%E -3.96%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.83%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-19 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.37%EV -15.29%E -7.46%K -14.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.48%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.15%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-19 10:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -8.27%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-19 10:34
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -11.05%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-19 11:05
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -13.22%E -6.30%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.83%E -4.46%K -6.58%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-19 12:16
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.93%EV -11.15%E -5.19%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.00%EV -15.08%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-19 10:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 40.51%2.74I 36.50%NM 31.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.15%16.5%2026-10-19 10:30