The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Metz v Saint Etienne

2026-09-19 18:00 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 28.96%3.45fair odd
EV +8.33%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +3.04%
Growth +0.253%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%28.87%28.80%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.113.103.7435.09%32.12%32.26%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Etienne (Visit)

Prediction 43.19%2.32fair odd
EV -0.671%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.516%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.38%43.31%43.17%48.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.112.132.3053.19%47.29%46.84%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.85%3.59fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.722%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.63%27.82%28.04%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.253.5032.26%30.75%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Metz (Local): 28.96%; Saint Etienne (Visit): 43.19%; Draw: 27.85%. For Metz (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.74, producing a positive expected value of +8.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 25.02%EV +8.33%E +2.23%K +3.04%G +0.253%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.24%EV -16.22%E -8.36%K -17.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.53%E -0.722%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 19:21
1xBet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.32%EV -0.942%E -0.275%K -0.389%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -11.04%E -5.36%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.32%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 19:20
Suprabets🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -1.52%E -0.447%K -0.634%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.03%EV -18.81%E -10.00%K -21.37%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.96%EV -8.66%E -2.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-14 19:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 27.85%EV -3.26%E -0.976%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.94%EV -10.60%E -5.12%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.20%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -4.42%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.95%EV -14.06%E -7.06%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.88%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -4.42%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.95%EV -14.06%E -7.06%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.88%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.87%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 19:20
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.31%E -2.29%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.20%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 19:20
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.31%E -2.29%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.20%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-14 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -12.28%E -3.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-14 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -8.76%E -2.78%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.37%EV -14.06%E -7.06%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.59%EV -10.88%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-14 19:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 28.60%EV -9.63%E -3.09%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.52%EV -11.47%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.88%EV -10.88%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-14 19:19
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -7.15%E -3.32%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 19:19
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:20
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 19:25
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.86%EV -15.79%E -8.10%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-14 19:25
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -10.21%E -3.29%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -13.63%E -6.81%K -13.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-14 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -13.11%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -2.53%E -0.722%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 19:20
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -13.11%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -0.671%E -0.292%K -0.516%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-14 18:05
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -13.11%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -2.83%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-14 12:56
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -13.11%E -4.37%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -5.31%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-14 19:20
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -14.56%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -5.31%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-14 19:20
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -14.56%E -4.93%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -7.15%E -3.32%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -5.31%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-14 19:21
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -16.00%E -5.52%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.15%E -3.32%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -5.31%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-14 19:20
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -16.58%E -5.76%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.31%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:20
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -16.58%E -5.76%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -16.58%E -5.76%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 18:00
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -16.87%E -5.88%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -16.87%E -5.88%K -9.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 18:05
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -17.45%E -6.12%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -4.99%E -2.27%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 19:20
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -18.90%E -6.75%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.20%EV -9.31%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-14 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 28.83%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.64%16.4%2026-09-14 19:20
Arbitrage (11 combinations) +1.23%Pinnacle 3.74 (27.1%) / BetMGM 2.30 (44.0%) / Betr (AU) 3.50 (28.9%)Show all 11 combinations
Metz (Local)Saint Etienne (Visit)DrawMargin
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (27.1%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (44.0%)Pinnacle🎯 3.50 (28.9%)+1.23%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (27.1%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (44.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.50 (28.9%)+1.23%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.9%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.7%)1xBet🎯 3.42 (29.4%)+0.547%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.9%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.7%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.42 (29.4%)+0.547%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.6%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.373%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.6%)SportsBet🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.373%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.6%)betfred_uk🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.373%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.6%)FanDuel🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.373%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)BetMGM🎯 2.30 (43.6%)Paddy Power🎯 3.40 (29.5%)+0.373%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)Fanatics🎯 2.25 (44.6%)Pinnacle🎯 3.50 (28.6%)+0.247%
Pinnacle🎯 3.74 (26.8%)Fanatics🎯 2.25 (44.6%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.50 (28.6%)+0.247%