Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guingamp v SC Bastia

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Guingamp 0–1 SC Bastia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guingamp (Local)

Prediction 41.48%2.41fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.50%41.32%41.63%42.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3547.62%44.45%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Bastia (Visit)

Prediction 30.07%3.33fair odd
EV -0.764%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.332%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.84%30.24%29.89%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.002.983.3036.36%33.32%33.56%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.45%3.52fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -0.966%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%28.44%28.47%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.203.203.4034.72%31.30%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guingamp (Local): 41.48%; SC Bastia (Visit): 30.07%; Draw: 28.45%. For SC Bastia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -0.764%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -2.52%E -1.07%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -9.79%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.28%E -0.966%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 17:40
Pinnacle🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 41.13%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -0.764%E -0.232%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.71%EV -7.84%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -3.76%E -1.62%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -3.76%E -1.62%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:45
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 17:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.28%E -0.966%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 10:00
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 17:45
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 17:50
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 17:35
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:40
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -8.28%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -13.24%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:40
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -7.49%E -3.36%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -4.37%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -7.84%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Suprabets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.73%EV -7.49%E -3.36%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.59%EV -7.68%E -2.50%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 29.68%EV -12.96%E -4.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 17:42
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -7.91%E -3.56%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 17:50
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -7.91%E -3.56%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 17:45
Bovada🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%EV -7.91%E -3.56%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.58%EV -11.25%E -3.61%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 17:54
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 17:55
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.65%EV -10.39%E -3.49%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.84%EV -6.70%E -2.04%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:50
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.79%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -8.28%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.74%EV -9.57%E -4.39%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -8.28%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:45
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-30 23:59
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.79%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 17:45
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 17:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.89%E -6.14%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -17.30%E -6.29%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-02 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -12.89%E -6.14%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -15.80%E -5.64%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -18.08%E -6.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-02 17:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%1.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99%2.1%2026-05-02 17:55