La escuela de los momios

Guingamp v SC Bastia

Inicio: 2026-05-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Guingamp 0–1 SC Bastia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Guingamp (Local)

Predicción 41.48%2.41momio equitativo
EV -2.52%
Ventaja -1.07%
Kelly -1.86%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.50%41.32%41.63%42.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.252.252.3547.62%44.45%44.44%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Bastia (Visitante)

Predicción 30.07%3.33momio equitativo
EV -0.764%
Ventaja -0.232%
Kelly -0.332%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.84%30.24%29.89%31.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.002.983.3036.36%33.32%33.56%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.45%3.52momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -0.966%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.52%28.44%28.47%30.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.203.203.4034.72%31.30%31.25%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -2.52%E -1.07%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -9.79%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.28%E -0.966%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 17:40
Pinnacle2.34I 42.74%NM 41.13%EV -2.93%E -1.25%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -0.764%E -0.232%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.71%EV -7.84%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Unibet (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Grosvenor2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
BetRivers2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
PMU (FR)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Casumo2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Unibet2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
betPARX2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
ATG (SE)2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
Svenska Spel2.33I 42.92%NM 39.50%EV -3.35%E -1.44%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 10:00
LowVig.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -3.76%E -1.62%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:45
BetOnline.ag2.32I 43.10%NM 40.44%EV -3.76%E -1.62%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 17:45
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 17:54
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.28%E -0.966%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 14:10
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 17:35
LiveScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 10:00
Virgin Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -4.59%E -2.00%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 10:00
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 41.91%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Unibet (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -5.27%E -1.67%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 17:45
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 17:50
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 17:35
betfred_uk2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -13.39%E -4.65%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:40
Everygame2.25I 44.44%NM 40.40%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -8.28%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.80%EV -13.24%E -4.34%K -6.46%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:40
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
William Hill2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -6.66%E -2.96%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -14.66%E -4.89%K -7.33%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:50
Marathon Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.85%EV -7.49%E -3.36%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -4.37%E -1.38%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.80%EV -7.84%E -2.42%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 17:55
Suprabets2.23I 44.84%NM 40.73%EV -7.49%E -3.36%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.59%EV -7.68%E -2.50%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 29.68%EV -12.96%E -4.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 17:42
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -7.91%E -3.56%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 17:50
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.68%EV -7.91%E -3.56%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 17:45
Bovada2.22I 45.05%NM 41.58%EV -7.91%E -3.56%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.58%EV -11.25%E -3.61%K -5.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 17:54
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -3.77%E -1.18%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 17:55
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 17:40
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.65%EV -10.39%E -3.49%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.84%EV -6.70%E -2.04%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 17:50
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.79%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -7.55%E -2.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 17:45
NetBet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -8.28%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -8.74%E -3.97%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-02 17:50
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87%NM 41.74%EV -9.57%E -4.39%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -8.28%E -2.72%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 17:50
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:45
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -11.29%E -3.83%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -4.71%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 17:45
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -6.78%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -10.40%E -3.30%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-30 23:59
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.79%E -3.26%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.97%E -2.80%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-02 17:45
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -10.81%E -5.03%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.79%E -4.41%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -11.82%E -3.81%K -5.63%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 17:45
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -12.89%E -6.14%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -17.30%E -6.29%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -6.13%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-02 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 40.34%EV -12.89%E -6.14%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.25%EV -15.80%E -5.64%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -18.08%E -6.28%K -9.62%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-02 17:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Matchbook2.32I 43.10%NM 42.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.14%1.5%2026-05-02 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%1.9%2026-05-02 17:55
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.99%2.1%2026-05-02 17:55