Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Guingamp v Red Star

2026-09-19 12:00 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Guingamp (Local)

Predicción 40.53%2.47momio equitativo
EV -4.35%
Ventaja -1.84%
Kelly -3.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.54%40.59%40.57%42.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.232.252.3647.62%44.79%44.54%42.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Red Star (Visitante)

Predicción 31.13%3.21momio equitativo
EV -0.390%
Ventaja -0.122%
Kelly -0.177%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.08%31.14%31.10%32.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.982.983.2037.04%33.58%33.56%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.34%3.53momio equitativo
EV -0.802%
Ventaja -0.229%
Kelly -0.321%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.76%28.27%28.33%29.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.063.233.233.5032.68%30.93%31.01%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Guingamp (Local): 40.53%; Red Star (Visitante): 31.13%; Empate: 28.34%. Para Red Star (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.21. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.20, con un valor esperado de -0.390%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.82%EV -4.35%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.43%EV -6.93%E -2.32%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.74%EV -7.32%E -2.24%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-14 19:30
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.11%EV -5.57%E -2.39%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.57%EV -7.86%E -2.66%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -5.97%E -2.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.10%EV -7.24%E -2.43%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.94%EV -5.97%E -2.57%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.10%EV -7.24%E -2.43%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.27%EV -6.38%E -2.76%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.54%EV -8.17%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -10.35%E -3.59%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -0.802%E -0.229%K -0.321%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-14 19:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-14 12:26
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.73%E -3.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 19:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -11.28%E -3.96%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-14 19:46
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-14 19:46
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.84%E -4.59%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-14 19:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:20
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.78%E -2.95%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -8.17%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-14 12:56
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.47%E -1.96%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-14 12:56
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -11.28%E -3.96%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 19:45
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -11.28%E -3.96%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 19:45
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 12:26
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.62%E -2.21%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 12:24
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.17%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-14 19:24
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -12.84%E -4.59%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -3.64%E -1.07%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 19:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -8.17%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 12:26
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -8.81%E -3.91%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -12.84%E -4.59%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 19:50
Suprabets🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 39.54%EV -9.21%E -4.11%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 31.52%EV -12.53%E -4.46%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 28.94%EV -13.27%E -4.34%K -6.44%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-14 19:29
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:46
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:46
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -0.390%E -0.122%K -0.177%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -7.89%E -2.43%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 19:46
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.35%E -3.59%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-14 12:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -10.35%E -3.59%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-14 12:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.66%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-14 12:56
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -10.66%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-14 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.39%EV -11.28%E -3.96%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-14 12:26
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -10.83%E -4.92%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -14.40%E -5.24%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-14 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.01%EV -11.65%E -5.34%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.61%EV -9.11%E -3.12%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-14 12:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.81%EV -12.86%E -5.98%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.34%EV -12.84%E -4.59%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-14 12:26
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -12.86%E -5.98%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -15.95%E -5.91%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-14 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -14.08%E -6.64%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -5.06%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 19:45
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -14.08%E -6.64%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -5.06%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 19:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -14.08%E -6.64%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.35%EV -5.06%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.42%EV -10.72%E -3.40%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -14.89%E -7.09%K -13.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -5.06%E -1.66%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.63%EV -12.14%E -3.92%K -5.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-14 19:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.23%EV -14.89%E -7.09%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.06%EV -8.17%E -2.77%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -9.31%E -2.91%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-14 12:26
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 40.19%2.78I 35.97%NM 30.94%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.86%16.3%2026-09-14 12:25