Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dijon v Saint Etienne

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 18:45 UTC

Final: Dijon 2–3 Saint Etienne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dijon (Local)

Prediction 19.08%5.24fair odd
EV +0.170%
Edge +0.032%
Kelly +0.040%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.04%19.02%20.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.804.805.2523.09%20.83%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Etienne (Visit)

Prediction 55.62%1.80fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -6.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.85%55.65%55.65%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.671.7262.50%60.23%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.30%3.95fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.342%
Kelly -0.460%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.53%25.31%25.33%27.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.603.9029.41%27.62%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dijon (Local): 19.08%; Saint Etienne (Visit): 55.62%; Draw: 25.30%. For Dijon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.24. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.170%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV +0.170%E +0.032%K +0.040%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 18:40
Bet Victor🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV +0.170%E +0.032%K +0.040%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -0.784%E -0.151%K -0.187%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -11.01%E -6.88%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 11:10
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -4.60%E -0.920%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.13%EV -5.44%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -2.60%E -0.675%K -0.912%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -4.60%E -0.920%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -5.44%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 18:25
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -4.60%E -0.920%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -2.60%E -0.675%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-31 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.60%E -0.920%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.83%EV -8.78%E -5.35%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.86%E -1.02%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-31 18:35
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -4.60%E -0.920%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 18:39
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -4.60%E -0.920%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 18:40
1xBet🎯4.99I 20.04%NM 18.75%EV -4.79%E -0.960%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -5.44%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.21%EV -9.68%E -2.71%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-31 18:40
Pinnacle🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.59%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.80%EV -4.33%E -2.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.61%EV -1.33%E -0.342%K -0.460%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-31 18:30
BetOnline.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.17%EV -5.44%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.69%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.17%EV -5.44%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.69%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.65%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 18:40
BetUS🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.31%EV -6.00%E -3.55%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -7.66%E -2.10%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 18:40
FanDuel🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.12%EV -6.00%E -3.55%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.90%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.85%EV -4.33%E -2.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 18:30
Bovada🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV -6.51%E -1.33%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.36%EV -7.67%E -4.62%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.11%EV -7.46%E -1.54%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.16%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 18:33
Casumo🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:05
Grosvenor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:05
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:05
Unibet (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:04
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:04
PMU (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:04
Unibet (NL)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:04
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:05
betPARX🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:04
Svenska Spel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.56%E -3.90%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 11:04
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:35
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.19%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 18:35
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.34%EV -7.67%E -4.62%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.49%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 18:24
Betsson🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 18:30
NordicBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.97%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 18:25
Suprabets🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.40%EV -10.45%E -6.49%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.68%EV -6.90%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-31 18:35
theScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -8.42%E -1.75%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.94%EV -9.89%E -6.11%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-31 18:40
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.39%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 13:39
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.98%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 18:35
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -9.37%E -1.97%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.48%EV -9.34%E -5.73%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.48%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-31 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -10.32%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.68%EV -7.67%E -4.62%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -10.32%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.68%EV -7.67%E -4.62%K -11.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -5.13%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 18:25
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -7.11%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 13:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -8.23%E -4.98%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-31 18:35
BetRivers🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.14%EV -9.34%E -5.73%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -10.19%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-31 11:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -9.89%E -6.11%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 18:40
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -9.89%E -6.11%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -10.45%E -6.49%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-31 18:40
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -12.23%E -2.66%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.84%EV -10.45%E -6.49%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-31 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.01%EV -10.45%E -6.49%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.01%EV -10.45%E -6.49%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 11:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.01%EV -10.45%E -6.49%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -11.45%E -3.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 11:05
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -14.14%E -3.14%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.45%EV -9.89%E -6.11%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -13.98%E -4.11%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-31 18:35
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -17.38%E -4.01%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -9.89%E -6.11%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -8.92%E -2.48%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 18:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.6%2026-08-31 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.6%2026-08-31 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.6%2026-08-31 18:40
Smarkets5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%1.0%2026-08-31 18:40
Matchbook5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%1.73I 57.80%NM 57.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%1.0%2026-08-31 18:40