Language:English
Marseille v Strasbourg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marseille (Local)
Prediction 57.78%1.73fair odd
EV +0.543%
Edge +0.312%
Kelly +0.734%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.46%57.53%57.90%59.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.621.621.7465.79%61.59%61.73%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Strasbourg (Visit)
Prediction 20.60%4.86fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.457%
Kelly -0.579%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.30%20.89%20.42%22.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.404.504.7527.03%22.73%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.62%4.63fair odd
EV +2.70%
Edge +0.569%
Kelly +0.720%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.50%21.58%21.68%22.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.314.334.7526.32%23.18%23.09%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marseille (Local): 57.78%; Strasbourg (Visit): 20.60%; Draw: 21.62%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.01%EV -4.66%E -2.82%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV -2.17%E -0.457%K -0.579%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV +2.70%E +0.569%K +0.720%G +0.019% | 2.7% | 2026-07-07 06:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.93%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -3.20%E -0.681%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.75%EV -0.542%E -0.118%K -0.151%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-07 05:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.63%EV +0.543%E +0.312%K +0.734%G +0.004% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 21.56%EV -5.88%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.80%EV -2.27%E -0.503%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 1.5% | 2026-07-06 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -2.70%E -0.601%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-07 05:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.86%EV -8.12%E -5.11%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -2.70%E -0.601%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-07 05:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -2.70%E -0.601%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-07 05:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.12%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-07 04:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 05:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.43%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-06 07:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.63%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-07 05:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.16%EV -2.35%E -1.39%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-06 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.45%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.45%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-06 17:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.35%EV -5.06%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.72%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-07 05:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -7.03%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-06 17:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -12.47%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 14:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -12.47%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-06 14:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.04%EV -8.70%E -5.51%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-06 15:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.19%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.28%EV -11.44%E -2.66%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-07 04:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.32%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -9.38%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -9.19%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-07 06:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -15.56%E -3.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -9.19%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-07 04:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.16%EV -9.86%E -6.32%K -17.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -15.56%E -3.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -15.68%E -4.02%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-07 04:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.46%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.77%EV -20.71%E -5.38%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.77%EV -16.76%E -4.35%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-07-03 15:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 55.22%EV -12.17%E -8.01%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.69%EV -23.80%E -6.43%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.09%EV -17.84%E -4.69%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 19.1% | 2026-07-07 04:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 56.91% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54% | 10.5% | 2026-07-07 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 194.1% | 2026-07-07 05:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 194.1% | 2026-07-07 05:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33% | 194.1% | 2026-07-07 05:50 |