L’École des cotes

Marseille v Strasbourg

2026-08-22 15:00 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Résultat du match

24 opérateurs (10 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Marseille (Local)

Prévision 57.78%1.73cote équitable
EV +0.543%
Avantage +0.312%
Kelly +0.734%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 1.74

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.46%57.53%57.90%59.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.521.621.621.7465.79%61.59%61.73%57.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Strasbourg (Visiteur)

Prévision 20.60%4.86cote équitable
EV -2.17%
Avantage -0.457%
Kelly -0.579%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.30%20.89%20.42%22.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.704.404.504.7527.03%22.73%22.22%21.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 21.62%4.63cote équitable
EV +2.70%
Avantage +0.569%
Kelly +0.720%
Croissance +0.019%

avec la cote maximale 4.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.50%21.58%21.68%22.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.804.314.334.7526.32%23.18%23.09%21.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (24 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 59.01%EV -4.66%E -2.82%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV -2.17%E -0.457%K -0.579%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.50%EV +2.70%E +0.569%K +0.720%G +0.019%2.7%2026-07-07 06:40
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.93%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -3.20%E -0.681%K -0.865%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.75%EV -0.542%E -0.118%K -0.151%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-07 05:54
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 56.63%EV +0.543%E +0.312%K +0.734%G +0.004%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.56%EV -5.88%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.80%EV -2.27%E -0.503%K -0.645%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-06 15:25
betfred_uk1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -2.70%E -0.601%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-07 05:55
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.86%EV -8.12%E -5.11%K -13.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.80%EV -2.70%E -0.601%K -0.773%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-07 05:55
Sky Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -2.70%E -0.601%K -0.773%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-07 05:55
Codere (IT)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.12%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-07 04:20
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-07 05:55
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.43%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-06 07:45
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.63%EV -9.28%E -5.91%K -16.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.45%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-07 05:54
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.16%EV -2.35%E -1.39%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.92%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-06 16:35
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.45%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.45%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -10.82%E -2.50%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.77%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 17:04
Pinnacle1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.35%EV -5.06%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.72%EV -6.60%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-07 05:55
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -5.26%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -7.03%E -1.63%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-06 17:40
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -12.47%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -3.50%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -12.47%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-06 14:30
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.04%EV -8.70%E -5.51%K -15.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.32%E -1.63%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-06 15:10
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 57.19%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.28%EV -11.44%E -2.66%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 04:00
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.32%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.58%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -9.38%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -9.19%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-07 06:29
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.15%EV -6.39%E -3.95%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -15.56%E -3.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -9.19%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 04:00
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.16%EV -9.86%E -6.32%K -17.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -15.56%E -3.79%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -15.68%E -4.02%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-07 04:19
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 54.46%EV -6.97%E -4.33%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.77%EV -20.71%E -5.38%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.77%EV -16.76%E -4.35%K -5.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-03 15:50
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.22%EV -12.17%E -8.01%K -23.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.69%EV -23.80%E -6.43%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.09%EV -17.84%E -4.69%K -6.37%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-07 04:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 56.91%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%10.5%2026-07-07 23:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-07-07 05:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-07-07 05:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-07-07 05:50
Arbitrage (2 combinaisons) +0.43%1xBet 1.74 (57.7%) / Coolbet 4.75 (21.1%) / Coolbet 4.75 (21.1%)Afficher les 2 combinaisons
Marseille (Local)Strasbourg (Visiteur)Match nulMarge
1xBet 1.74 (57.7%)Coolbet 4.75 (21.1%)Coolbet 4.75 (21.1%)+0.425%
1xBet 1.74 (57.6%)SportsBet 4.70 (21.3%)Coolbet 4.75 (21.1%)+0.200%