Language:English
Marseille v Toulouse
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marseille (Local)
Prediction 51.16%1.95fair odd
EV -5.35%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -6.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.08%51.01%51.24%55.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.751.8560.24%56.79%57.14%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Toulouse (Visit)
Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV +4.81%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.064%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.50%22.94%22.71%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.214.154.6028.57%23.76%24.10%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.05%3.84fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.410%
Kelly +0.552%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%26.05%26.05%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.623.703.9032.26%27.60%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marseille (Local): 51.16%; Toulouse (Visit): 22.78%; Draw: 26.05%. For Toulouse (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.39. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.81%.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -10.97%E -6.31%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV +4.81%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.064% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV +1.60%E +0.410%K +0.552%G +0.009% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 19:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -10.97%E -6.31%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV +4.81%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.064% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV +1.60%E +0.410%K +0.552%G +0.009% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 19:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -12.00%E -6.98%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV +4.81%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.064% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV +0.297%E +0.077%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 19:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -14.04%E -8.36%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 19:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -14.04%E -8.36%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -2.31%E -0.615%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-04 19:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -15.07%E -9.08%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV +0.253%E +0.057%K +0.074%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -3.61%E -0.976%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.99%EV -5.86%E -3.18%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.51%EV -3.16%E -0.745%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -2.31%E -0.615%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 19:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.88%E -3.78%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.56%EV -5.86%E -3.18%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.31%E -0.615%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -6.88%E -3.78%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.25%EV -7.39%E -4.08%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -7.52%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 19:53 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -6.88%E -3.78%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.61%E -0.976%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.46%E -5.98%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.46%E -5.98%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-04 18:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -5.35%E -2.89%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -14.56%E -3.88%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -13.02%E -7.66%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -20.25%E -5.79%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -19.24%E -6.21%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 19.7% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.