L’École des cotesFrançais
Marseille v Toulouse
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Marseille (Local)
Prévision 51.16%1.95cote équitable
EV -5.35%
Avantage -2.89%
Kelly -6.29%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.85
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.08%51.01%51.24%55.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.661.761.751.8560.24%56.79%57.14%54.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Toulouse (Visiteur)
Prévision 22.78%4.39cote équitable
EV +4.81%
Avantage +1.05%
Kelly +1.34%
Croissance +0.064%
avec la cote maximale 4.60
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.50%22.94%22.71%24.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.504.214.154.6028.57%23.76%24.10%21.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 26.05%3.84cote équitable
EV +1.60%
Avantage +0.410%
Kelly +0.552%
Croissance +0.009%
avec la cote maximale 3.90
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.35%26.05%26.05%26.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.623.703.9032.26%27.60%27.03%25.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (24 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -10.97%E -6.31%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV +4.81%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.064% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV +1.60%E +0.410%K +0.552%G +0.009% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 19:34 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -10.97%E -6.31%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV +4.81%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.064% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV +1.60%E +0.410%K +0.552%G +0.009% | 4.9% | 2026-03-04 19:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.92%EV -12.00%E -6.98%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV +4.81%E +1.05%K +1.34%G +0.064% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV +0.297%E +0.077%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 19:35 |
| Unibet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:25 |
| Grosvenor | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:24 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -12.51%E -7.32%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -14.04%E -8.36%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -1.01%E -0.265%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 19:34 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -14.04%E -8.36%K -20.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +2.53%E +0.563%K +0.723%G +0.018% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -2.31%E -0.615%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-04 19:34 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.77%EV -15.07%E -9.08%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV +0.253%E +0.057%K +0.074%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%EV -3.61%E -0.976%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:35 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.99%EV -5.86%E -3.18%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.51%EV -3.16%E -0.745%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -2.31%E -0.615%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 19:54 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -6.88%E -3.78%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.56%EV -5.86%E -3.18%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -2.31%E -0.615%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -6.88%E -3.78%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.22%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.25%EV -7.39%E -4.08%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.62%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.13%EV -7.52%E -2.12%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 19:53 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -6.88%E -3.78%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.61%E -0.976%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| William Hill | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| 888sport | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.90%E -4.39%K -9.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Coral | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.46%E -5.98%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-04 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.46%E -5.98%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-04 18:19 |
| Betway | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -5.35%E -2.89%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -14.56%E -3.88%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.43%E -3.36%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
| Bet Victor | 1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -13.02%E -7.66%K -18.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -20.25%E -5.79%K -8.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -19.24%E -6.21%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 19.7% | 2026-03-04 19:50 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.