Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS Turku v FC Lahti

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS Turku (Local)

Prediction 30.09%3.32fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.680%
Kelly -0.983%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%30.03%30.10%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.103.2535.71%32.59%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lahti (Visit)

Prediction 42.96%2.33fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.72%43.05%42.94%45.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.152.2550.00%46.75%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -0.286%
Edge -0.077%
Kelly -0.106%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%26.92%26.96%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.343.403.7034.72%29.93%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS Turku (Local): 30.09%; FC Lahti (Visit): 42.96%; Draw: 26.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -0.286%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -2.21%E -0.680%K -0.983%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -11.93%E -5.82%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 05:15
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.88%EV -2.51%E -0.775%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.81%EV -5.06%E -2.29%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.31%EV -0.825%E -0.224%K -0.308%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-10 14:45
GTbets🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 28.81%EV -2.81%E -0.871%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.53%EV -10.21%E -4.89%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.66%EV -5.95%E -1.70%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 05:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.72%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-10 14:44
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -4.63%E -2.08%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 14:34
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.25%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.92%EV -4.63%E -2.08%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.33%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 14:34
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.68%E -1.62%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-10 05:35
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 14:40
BetUS🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 14:50
BetAnything🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 14:50
1xBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.17%EV -6.77%E -3.12%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.61%EV -5.14%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-10 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-10 14:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -5.14%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 14:44
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 14:54
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:00
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:01
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:00
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:01
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:00
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -5.49%E -2.49%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 18:01
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:29
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -6.34%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:00
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -6.34%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:00
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -6.34%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -6.34%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -6.34%E -2.91%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -13.76%E -4.30%K -6.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:00
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 05:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 05:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 05:14
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-10 05:15
Coolbet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.31%EV -7.63%E -2.48%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.72%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -0.286%E -0.077%K -0.106%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-10 14:45
Bet Right🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -8.23%E -2.70%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -7.02%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-10 14:30
Everygame🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -8.23%E -2.70%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-10 12:30
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:54
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:54
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:48
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-10 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-10 14:30
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.07%E -3.35%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-10 14:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -16.46%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-09 18:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.71%EV -10.33%E -3.47%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.37%EV -7.20%E -3.34%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 30.71%EV -10.33%E -3.47%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.37%EV -7.20%E -3.34%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-10 14:45
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -7.63%E -3.55%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-10 14:34
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -9.78%E -4.66%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -12.41%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-10 14:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.07%EV -13.34%E -4.63%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.86%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.07%EV -22.38%E -7.77%K -11.91%G +0.000%19.4%2026-04-10 14:43
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -15.75%E -5.63%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -11.93%E -5.82%K -11.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -8.37%E -2.46%K -3.49%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-10 14:48
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.14%EV -15.75%E -5.63%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.19%EV -14.08%E -7.04%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.67%EV -17.80%E -5.84%K -8.68%G +0.000%18.5%2026-04-10 14:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-04-10 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-04-10 14:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-04-10 14:55
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-04-10 14:50