The School of Odds

TPS Turku v AC Oulu

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 14:02 UTC

Final: TPS Turku 3–0 AC Oulu

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

TPS Turku (Local)

Prediction 38.39%2.61fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.07%38.27%38.36%39.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.422.5545%41%41%39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

AC Oulu (Visit)

Prediction 34.30%2.92fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.425%
Kelly -0.651%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.25%34.41%34.29%36.07%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.622.8841%38%38%35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.32%3.66fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -0.965%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.18%27.31%27.35%28.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.343.303.5732%30%30%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -2.11%E -0.829%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
GTbets2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -4.03%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.07%EV -9.11%E -3.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.49%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 13:59
BetRivers2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -4.03%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-11 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -4.03%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-11 13:59
LiveScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -4.03%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-11 13:59
Virgin Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -4.03%E -1.61%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-11 13:59
Pinnacle2.47I 40.49%NM 39.22%EV -5.19%E -2.10%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.64%EV -1.22%E -0.425%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.14%EV -2.48%E -0.695%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-11 13:59
LowVig.ag2.46I 40.65%NM 38.64%EV -5.57%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.20%EV -4.65%E -1.67%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -4.39%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 13:59
BetOnline.ag2.46I 40.65%NM 38.64%EV -5.57%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.20%EV -4.65%E -1.67%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -4.39%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 13:59
BetAnything2.46I 40.65%NM 38.64%EV -5.57%E -2.26%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.20%EV -4.65%E -1.67%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -4.39%E -1.25%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-11 13:59
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 38.68%EV -5.95%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.85%EV -3.97%E -1.42%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -5.76%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.95%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.68%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 14:00
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -5.95%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.40%E -2.74%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -5.95%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -5.95%E -2.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-11 13:59
Marathon Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -6.72%E -2.77%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.90%EV -5.68%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.74%EV -8.22%E -2.45%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-11 13:59
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 36.19%EV -6.72%E -2.77%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -15.97%E -6.52%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -13.95%E -4.43%K -6.49%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-11 13:59
1xBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.61%EV -7.10%E -2.94%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25%EV -3.63%E -1.29%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -9.31%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-11 13:59
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -7.10%E -2.94%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -6.71%E -2.47%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -5.76%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 14:00
Betsson2.42I 41.32%NM 38.59%EV -7.10%E -2.94%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.34%EV -6.71%E -2.47%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -5.76%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-11 13:59
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -5.68%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 13:59
Bovada2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -5.68%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 14:00
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -5.68%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 13:59
Tipico (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.11%E -3.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-11 13:59
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-11 13:58
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -10.14%E -3.87%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 13:59
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -10.14%E -3.87%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 13:59
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -10.14%E -3.87%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -10.14%E -3.87%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -7.87%E -3.28%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -12.54%E -4.92%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Betway2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -8.64%E -3.63%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.68%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -7.12%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 13:58
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.64%E -3.63%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-11 13:57
Neds2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -8.64%E -3.63%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-11 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -8.64%E -3.63%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-11 13:59
Coral2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -9.02%E -3.81%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-11 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.37I 42.19%NM 37.87%EV -9.02%E -3.81%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-11 13:59
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -9.79%E -4.17%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -7.40%E -2.74%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -8.49%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-11 13:59
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.88%EV -9.79%E -4.17%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.84%EV -7.40%E -2.74%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.28%EV -8.49%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-11 13:59
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -9.79%E -4.17%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -9.11%E -3.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -8.49%E -2.53%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-11 13:59
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 38.48%EV -9.79%E -4.17%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -9.11%E -3.44%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-11 14:00
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -11.71%E -5.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -10.14%E -3.87%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-11 13:58
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.71%E -5.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -9.80%E -3.73%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.71%E -5.09%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -9.80%E -3.73%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -11.22%E -3.45%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-11 13:59
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.76%EV -13.63%E -6.06%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -10.83%E -4.16%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.69%EV -13.95%E -4.43%K -6.49%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-11 13:59
BoyleSports2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -15.55%E -7.07%K -12.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.55%EV -14.26%E -5.70%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.18%EV -9.86%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-11 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.40%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%0.7%2026-07-11 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-07-11 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-07-11 13:59
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.25%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.65%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-07-11 13:59