Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ilves Tampere v VPS Vaasa

Inicio: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC

Final: Ilves Tampere 0–1 VPS Vaasa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ilves Tampere (Local)

Predicción 41.08%2.43momio equitativo
EV -3.05%
Ventaja -1.29%
Kelly -2.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.67%41.21%41.12%42.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.242.232.3647.62%44.73%44.84%42.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

VPS Vaasa (Visitante)

Predicción 32.58%3.07momio equitativo
EV -1.61%
Ventaja -0.532%
Kelly -0.795%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.10%32.55%32.60%34.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.622.802.803.0238.17%35.74%35.71%33.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.34%3.80momio equitativo
EV +2.72%
Ventaja +0.696%
Kelly +0.936%
Crecimiento +0.025%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.66%26.24%26.27%27.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.453.453.9030.77%29.02%28.99%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ilves Tampere (Local): 41.08%; VPS Vaasa (Visitante): 32.58%; Empate: 26.34%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.80. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.90, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.72%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.74%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.60%EV -3.89%E -1.32%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.66%EV +2.72%E +0.696%K +0.936%G +0.025%4.0%2026-08-22 13:25
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.91%EV -5.10%E -2.21%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 32.06%EV -1.61%E -0.532%K -0.795%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.03%EV -2.03%E -0.544%K -0.745%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 13:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.52%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 13:50
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -5.19%E -1.44%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 05:54
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.87%EV -7.14%E -2.51%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.50%E -1.83%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 13:58
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.45%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.05%EV -5.19%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -7.29%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 13:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -3.05%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -6.17%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 13:59
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -3.05%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.86%EV -6.17%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 13:59
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.11%EV -6.33%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.10%EV -4.86%E -1.67%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.14%E -2.51%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 10:14
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.14%E -2.51%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 11:29
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -11.67%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -3.89%E -1.32%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 13:24
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 13:20
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 05:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 05:44
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 13:59
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -13.73%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.38%EV -14.64%E -5.59%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.98%EV -7.82%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-22 13:59
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.51%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.52%E -1.90%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 13:54
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:29
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:29
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:29
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:29
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.94%EV -8.39%E -3.76%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.40%EV -13.73%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.80%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.14%E -2.65%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-22 13:34
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.21%EV -6.74%E -2.97%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.28%EV -2.58%E -0.864%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 13:50
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.83%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 12:40
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.83%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 12:40
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:44
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -8.77%E -3.13%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:44
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -6.17%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:44
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -6.17%E -2.14%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 13:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 13:20
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-22 05:54
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-22 11:04
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -14.64%E -5.59%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-22 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.26%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.68%EV -14.31%E -5.44%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.45%E -3.07%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-22 13:50
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-22 12:40
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -10.44%E -4.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 05:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.93%EV -10.44%E -4.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 05:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -10.85%E -5.00%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.78%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-22 05:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -10.85%E -5.00%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.78%EV -12.03%E -4.46%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -11.77%E -3.51%K -5.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-22 05:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 13:35
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 13:35
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.62%E -4.37%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.40%E -3.78%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -13.09%E -3.97%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 13:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.91%EV -13.73%E -6.54%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.66%EV -14.31%E -5.44%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.43%EV -14.40%E -4.43%K -6.40%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-22 05:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-08-22 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-08-22 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-08-22 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.41%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-08-22 13:25