Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves Tampere v AC Oulu

Kickoff: 2026-05-08 15:00 UTC

Final: Ilves Tampere 1–0 AC Oulu

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves Tampere (Local)

Prediction 31.22%3.20fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.624%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.03%31.30%31.20%33.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.903.1637.04%34.19%34.48%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AC Oulu (Visit)

Prediction 42.41%2.36fair odd
EV -0.344%
Edge -0.146%
Kelly -0.254%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.34%42.25%42.43%43.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.152.3550.00%46.03%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.37%3.79fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.364%
Kelly -0.497%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.52%26.45%26.37%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.463.503.7434.72%28.93%28.57%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves Tampere (Local): 31.22%; AC Oulu (Visit): 42.41%; Draw: 26.37%. For AC Oulu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -0.344%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -1.35%E -0.426%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.44%EV -5.43%E -2.44%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.90%EV -1.36%E -0.364%K -0.497%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-08 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.78%E -1.57%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -5.86%E -2.64%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 14:50
BetAnything🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%EV -4.78%E -1.57%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%EV -5.86%E -2.64%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-08 14:49
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -4.78%E -1.57%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.72%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 14:40
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -4.78%E -1.57%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 14:47
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -4.78%E -1.57%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -7.55%E -3.46%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 14:35
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -4.78%E -1.57%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -7.55%E -3.46%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 14:34
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -5.72%E -1.89%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.60%EV -7.13%E -3.26%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -7.16%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-08 14:49
GTbets🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -6.34%E -2.11%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.91%EV -1.19%E -0.511%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.31%EV -7.96%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-08 13:25
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.34%E -2.11%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 14:35
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -6.34%E -2.11%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 14:50
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.34%E -2.11%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-08 14:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -4.58%E -2.04%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 14:33
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-08 14:33
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-08 14:39
Everygame🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -7.90%E -2.68%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 14:49
1xBet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.82%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -2.46%E -1.07%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 14:49
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.14%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.89%EV -0.344%E -0.146%K -0.254%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%EV -2.42%E -0.653%K -0.895%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-08 12:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 14:49
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.59%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:49
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -4.58%E -2.04%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:34
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -4.58%E -2.04%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -4.58%E -2.04%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -4.58%E -2.04%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-08 14:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.72%EV -9.25%E -4.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 14:49
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.72%EV -9.25%E -4.32%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -6.37%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 14:49
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-08 14:38
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -10.10%E -4.76%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 14:49
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -10.10%E -4.76%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 14:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -10.10%E -4.76%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 14:49
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.46%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-08 14:34
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -10.09%E -3.50%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.04%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-08 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.09%E -3.50%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 14:34
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.09%E -3.50%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-08 14:35
SportsBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.46%EV -10.40%E -3.62%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.99%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-08 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -10.40%E -3.62%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 14:34
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -10.40%E -3.62%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-08 14:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -11.03%E -3.87%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-08 14:49
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.59%E -4.50%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-08 14:34
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -12.59%E -4.50%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.97%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 14:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -12.59%E -4.50%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -13.07%E -6.37%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-08 14:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.03%EV -14.15%E -5.14%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.29%EV -15.19%E -7.59%K -15.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.68%EV -24.04%E -8.35%K -12.79%G +0.000%21.1%2026-05-08 14:34
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -15.71%E -5.82%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.33%EV -13.07%E -6.37%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-08 14:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.12%EV -15.71%E -5.82%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.34%EV -8.82%E -4.10%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.53%EV -16.92%E -5.37%K -7.87%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-08 14:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-05-08 14:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-05-08 14:54
Matchbook3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-05-08 14:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.38%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%1.2%2026-05-08 14:50