Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lahti v IF Gnistan

Kickoff: 2026-07-04 12:00 UTC

Final: FC Lahti 1–0 IF Gnistan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lahti (Local)

Prediction 41.06%2.44fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.609%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.06%41.04%42.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.252.4047.62%44.59%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IF Gnistan (Visit)

Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd
EV +1.43%
Edge +0.438%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.65%31.11%31.15%32.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.2636.36%34.19%34.48%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.83%3.59fair odd
EV -0.094%
Edge -0.026%
Kelly -0.036%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%27.83%27.80%28.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.333.353.5932.26%30.04%29.85%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lahti (Local): 41.06%; IF Gnistan (Visit): 31.11%; Draw: 27.83%. For IF Gnistan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.09%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.69%EV +1.43%E +0.438%K +0.632%G +0.009%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.22%EV -4.55%E -1.33%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-04 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -6.39%E -2.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -0.437%E -0.137%K -0.199%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -6.39%E -2.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -0.437%E -0.137%K -0.199%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 11:50
BetAnything🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.61%EV -6.39%E -2.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -0.437%E -0.137%K -0.199%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -3.55%E -1.14%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.44%EV -8.72%E -2.66%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-04 11:50
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -5.10%E -1.67%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-04 11:35
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.07%EV -1.46%E -0.609%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.64%EV -5.42%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.29%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-03 10:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 11:35
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 11:49
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 11:50
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-04 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 11:40
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-04 11:39
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-04 11:52
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-04 11:52
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.66%E -2.22%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-04 11:52
GTbets🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.38%EV -6.39%E -2.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.66%EV -7.28%E -2.44%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -2.60%E -0.743%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 00:10
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -7.28%E -2.44%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -9.56%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-04 10:55
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -7.28%E -2.44%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -9.56%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-04 10:55
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.38%EV -9.26%E -4.19%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.53%EV -7.59%E -2.56%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.09%EV -0.094%E -0.026%K -0.036%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-04 11:50
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-04 11:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -8.22%E -2.79%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-04 11:55
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -9.77%E -3.37%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-04 11:35
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.77%E -3.37%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-04 11:35
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -9.77%E -3.37%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -12.34%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-04 10:55
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.77%E -3.37%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.73%E -4.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-04 11:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.77%E -3.37%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.73%E -4.43%K -6.54%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-04 11:35
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:03
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 10:04
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -10.39%E -3.61%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-04 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -11.33%E -3.97%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-03 10:04
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -11.33%E -3.97%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-03 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -8.44%E -3.79%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -11.33%E -3.97%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-03 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.85%EV -8.44%E -3.79%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.96%EV -11.33%E -3.97%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-03 10:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -12.88%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-02 12:05
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.72%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.72%EV -12.88%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -3.99%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-04 11:35
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.88%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-04 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.88%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-04 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.88%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-04 11:35
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -12.88%E -4.60%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-04 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -14.44%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-03 12:25
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -14.44%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-02 12:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.93%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.00%EV -14.44%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -9.56%E -2.94%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-03 10:05
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -13.78%E -6.56%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -14.44%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-04 11:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.32%EV -13.78%E -6.56%K -12.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.56%EV -14.44%E -5.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.12%EV -10.95%E -3.42%K -4.98%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-04 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.40I 41.67%NM 41.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.13%0.1%2026-07-04 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-07-04 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-07-04 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-07-04 11:55