The School of Odds
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Ukraine v Sweden

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ukraine (Local)

Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.308%
Kelly -0.437%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.63%29.13%29.12%30.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.193.203.4032.26%31.31%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sweden (Visit)

Prediction 41.83%2.39fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.65%41.80%41.78%42.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.252.3346.51%44.25%44.44%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.07%3.44fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.345%
Kelly -0.489%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%29.08%29.10%29.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.233.243.4032.26%30.95%30.91%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ukraine (Local): 29.10%; Sweden (Visit): 41.83%; Draw: 29.07%. For Ukraine (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.63%EV -1.05%E -0.308%K -0.437%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.32%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.05%EV -2.63%E -0.784%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-26 19:34
BetOnline.ag🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.68%EV -1.92%E -0.570%K -0.811%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.03%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.08%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-26 15:05
Pinnacle🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 29.05%EV -3.09%E -0.927%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -2.63%E -0.784%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-26 19:30
Marathon Bet🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 29.09%EV -3.38%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%EV -3.37%E -1.46%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.09%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-26 19:34
1xBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.40%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -2.54%E -1.09%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.96%EV -2.63%E -0.784%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-26 19:34
ReBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -2.95%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.47%EV -5.24%E -1.61%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 18:49
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -3.96%E -1.20%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.08%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 19:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -4.08%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-26 14:55
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -5.41%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.37%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.95%EV -6.41%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-26 19:16
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -2.95%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 19:35
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.00%EV -2.95%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-26 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 14:00
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 13:59
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.08%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 19:10
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 19:38
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 12:34
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.45%EV -5.46%E -2.42%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-26 19:38
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.08%E -1.24%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-26 17:24
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.87%E -2.15%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-26 19:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.44%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-26 13:59
Neds🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.44%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-26 13:59
TAB🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-26 19:24
NetBet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.44%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-26 19:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.44%E -2.68%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-26 12:34
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -8.32%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -10.07%E -4.68%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-26 17:25
Dabble (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 19:35
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -1.17%E -0.345%K -0.489%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-26 19:10
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-26 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-26 19:19
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.99%E -2.18%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-26 19:40
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.97%E -3.62%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-26 19:10
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 19:35
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 19:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 19:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.78%E -3.15%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.88%E -2.61%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 19:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.4%2026-03-26 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.74%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.4%2026-03-26 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.73%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-03-26 19:35
Smarkets◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-03-26 19:35