The School of Odds
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Poland v Albania

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Poland (Local)

Prediction 58.71%1.70fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.26%58.79%58.72%60.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.611.6664.52%62.12%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Albania (Visit)

Prediction 15.35%6.52fair odd
EV +7.43%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.092%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.51%15.32%15.43%17.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.026.007.0018.52%16.61%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.94%3.86fair odd
EV -0.136%
Edge -0.035%
Kelly -0.048%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.58%25.89%25.85%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.623.8529.41%27.62%27.62%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Poland (Local): 58.71%; Albania (Visit): 15.35%; Draw: 25.94%. For Albania (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.52. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.23%EV -7.82%E -4.98%K -13.72%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +7.43%E +1.06%K +1.24%G +0.092%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-26 19:38
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.09%EV -3.71%E -2.26%K -5.79%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.57%EV +2.06%E +0.309%K +0.364%G +0.007%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.55%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 19:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.03%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.87%EV -0.245%E -0.038%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -0.136%E -0.035%K -0.048%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-26 19:35
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.42%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.72%EV -0.245%E -0.038%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.86%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-26 19:34
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.14%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -1.78%E -0.278%K -0.330%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-26 19:35
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.14%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -1.78%E -0.278%K -0.330%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.89%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-26 19:35
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -4.30%E -2.64%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.38I 15.67%NM 15.19%EV -2.09%E -0.327%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.37%EV -0.914%E -0.239%K -0.324%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 19:34
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.40%EV -3.12%E -1.89%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 15.13%EV -2.24%E -0.352%K -0.417%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.47%EV -5.58%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-26 19:30
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.11%EV -7.23%E -4.58%K -12.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.94%EV -4.08%E -0.653%K -0.777%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-26 19:38
ReBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.96%EV -4.30%E -2.64%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -6.38%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.29%EV -1.43%E -0.377%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-26 19:39
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.75%EV -2.53%E -1.53%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.98%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.27%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-26 19:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.35%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-26 18:43
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-26 19:35
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.06%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -2.73%E -0.728%K -0.993%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-26 19:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-26 19:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-26 19:39
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-26 19:25
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.71%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-26 19:39
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.64%E -4.18%K -11.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-26 19:25
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.01%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 19:25
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 19:35
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-26 19:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-26 19:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.41%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.40%EV -7.92%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-26 19:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.06%EV -8.99%E -5.80%K -16.35%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.52%EV -9.45%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-26 19:35
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.70%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -10.99%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 19:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.70%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -10.99%E -1.89%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 19:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.30%EV -5.47%E -3.40%K -8.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-26 19:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 19:10
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.84%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -7.92%E -2.23%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-26 19:40
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.93%EV -7.23%E -4.58%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.92%EV -11.75%E -2.04%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-26 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.90%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -14.06%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-26 19:34
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.90%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.75%EV -14.06%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-26 19:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.59%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.74%EV -14.06%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -1.43%E -0.377%K -0.512%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-26 19:40
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.03%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -15.59%E -2.83%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-26 19:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.35%EV -7.23%E -4.58%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -17.13%E -3.17%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -2.73%E -0.728%K -0.993%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-26 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.94%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84%0.5%2026-03-26 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.94%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84%0.5%2026-03-26 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.55%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83%0.6%2026-03-26 19:40
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.49%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%1.3%2026-03-26 19:40