Language:English
Chelsea v Leeds United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chelsea (Local)
Prediction 45.00%2.22fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.26%44.90%44.88%56.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.672.062.082.1659.88%48.49%48.19%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leeds United (Visit)
Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV +35.95%
Edge +7.49%
Kelly +9.46%
Growth +3.40%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.59%28.48%28.41%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.403.304.8033.90%29.45%30.30%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV +4.05%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.11%26.62%26.71%28.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.533.503.9033.33%28.37%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 45.00%; Leeds United (Visit): 28.32%; Draw: 26.68%. For Leeds United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +35.95%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -24.85%E -14.88%K -37.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV +35.95%E +7.49%K +9.46%G +3.40% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV +4.05%E +1.04%K +1.40%G +0.057% | 6.4% | 2026-04-09 14:53 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -24.85%E -14.88%K -37.09%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV +35.95%E +7.49%K +9.46%G +3.40% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV +4.05%E +1.04%K +1.40%G +0.057% | 6.4% | 2026-04-09 14:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.91%EV -4.60%E -2.17%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.42%EV +0.544%E +0.153%K +0.213%G +0.001% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-23 12:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.91%EV -4.60%E -2.17%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.42%EV +0.544%E +0.153%K +0.213%G +0.001% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.67%EV -2.62%E -0.718%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.65%EV -2.80%E -1.30%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.85%EV +0.261%E +0.074%K +0.103%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 26.50%EV -0.754%E -0.203%K -0.277%G +0.000% | 1.4% | 2026-04-23 08:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -6.85%E -3.31%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.872%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -6.85%E -3.31%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.872%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -6.85%E -3.31%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.872%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -6.85%E -3.31%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.872%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.69%EV -4.60%E -2.17%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.84%EV -1.44%E -0.413%K -0.580%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.47%EV -2.35%E -0.643%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 08:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.77%EV -5.05%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.91%EV -2.00%E -0.579%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.32%EV -2.09%E -0.569%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-23 03:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.77%EV -5.05%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.91%EV -2.00%E -0.579%K -0.815%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 26.32%EV -2.09%E -0.569%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-23 03:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.86%EV -5.05%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.05%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 26.08%EV -1.02%E -0.275%K -0.377%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-23 16:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.40%E -3.08%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 17:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -6.40%E -3.08%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 17:09 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -7.30%E -3.55%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -8.20%E -4.02%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -8.20%E -4.02%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 14:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-23 12:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 01:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -9.10%E -4.51%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -5.12%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.14%EV -11.35%E -5.76%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.13%EV -5.12%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.47%EV -3.25%E -1.51%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 08:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.25%E -1.51%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.25%E -1.51%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 11:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 14:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 12:58 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 20:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 19:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 19:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.81%EV -3.25%E -1.51%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.64%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.55%EV +0.580%E +0.154%K +0.209%G +0.001% | 3.8% | 2026-04-22 16:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -3.25%E -1.51%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 19:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.94%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 19:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 14:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 14:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 14:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 14:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.75%E -3.78%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-22 23:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 12:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 12:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 14:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 19:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -10.00%E -5.00%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -19.96%E -6.65%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-04-23 17:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -3.25%E -1.51%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -15.03%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -1.29%E -0.348%K -0.477%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 19:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.50%E -2.62%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -16.45%E -5.58%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-22 19:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.94% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.10% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96% | 0.2% | 2026-04-23 22:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.76% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85% | 0.6% | 2026-04-24 01:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.65% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.07% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29% | 1.8% | 2026-04-23 22:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47% | 2.1% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |