The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Nottingham Forest v Manchester City

2026-11-07 17:30 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nottingham Forest (Local)

Prediction 18.79%5.32fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.315%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.11%18.92%18.87%20.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.834.805.2523.81%20.71%20.83%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 59.09%1.69fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.790%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.66%58.99%58.96%60.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.591.6766.67%63.08%62.89%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.12%4.52fair odd
EV -0.470%
Edge -0.105%
Kelly -0.134%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.17%22.09%22.17%23.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.154.204.5025.64%24.08%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nottingham Forest (Local): 18.79%; Manchester City (Visit): 59.09%; Draw: 22.12%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.50, with an expected value of -0.470%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.77%EV -1.34%E -0.255%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.99%EV -1.32%E -0.790%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 22.24%EV -2.02%E -0.456%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-24 18:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -1.34%E -0.255%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -7.23%E -4.60%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -0.470%E -0.105%K -0.134%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 17:55
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -1.34%E -0.255%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.79%EV -6.05%E -3.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 17:55
SportsBet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.54%EV -4.16%E -0.815%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -6.05%E -3.80%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 17:31
FanDuel🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.12%EV -4.16%E -0.815%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.39%EV -9.59%E -6.27%K -18.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 17:31
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -4.27%E -2.64%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-24 17:31
Bet Right🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.64%EV -4.87%E -3.02%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -5.46%E -3.41%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 17:31
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -5.46%E -3.41%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 17:20
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.23%E -4.60%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 17:31
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.04%E -1.21%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.23%E -4.60%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 17:50
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.37%EV -9.80%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.39%EV -4.27%E -2.64%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 17:19
MyBookie.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -9.80%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.64%EV -6.64%E -4.20%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 17:23
picklebet_au🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -9.80%E -2.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%EV -7.23%E -4.60%K -12.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 17:20
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -4.87%E -3.02%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -4.87%E -3.02%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -4.87%E -3.02%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 17:20
LeoVegas🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.74%E -2.26%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.21%EV -6.64%E -4.20%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:31
ReBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.38%EV -11.68%E -2.48%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.40%EV -7.82%E -5.01%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.22%EV -12.62%E -2.71%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.43%EV -9.59%E -6.27%K -18.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 17:23
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.93%EV -13.55%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.76%EV -7.82%E -5.01%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 17:20
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -13.55%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -5.46%E -3.41%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 18:01
Unibet (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -13.55%E -2.95%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.46%EV -10.18%E -6.70%K -19.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 17:20
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -15.43%E -3.43%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.43%EV -4.87%E -3.02%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.02%EV -7.11%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 18:10
Dabble (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -15.43%E -3.43%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -4.27%E -2.64%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%EV -21.07%E -5.02%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.41%EV -11.37%E -7.58%K -22.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -13.74%E -3.52%K -4.74%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-24 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 22.87%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.10%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.03%4.9%2026-10-24 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 24.14%1.12I 89.29%NM 51.72%2.40I 41.67%NM 24.14%72.6%2026-10-24 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 24.14%1.12I 89.29%NM 51.72%2.40I 41.67%NM 24.14%72.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 24.14%1.12I 89.29%NM 51.72%2.40I 41.67%NM 24.14%72.6%2026-10-24 17:50