Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crystal Palace v Manchester City

2026-08-28 19:00 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crystal Palace (Local)

Prediction 17.44%5.73fair odd
EV +0.272%
Edge +0.047%
Kelly +0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.60%17.54%17.45%19.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.355.405.7521.74%18.70%18.52%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manchester City (Visit)

Prediction 60.29%1.66fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.12%60.33%61.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6366.67%63.79%63.69%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.28%4.49fair odd
EV -0.428%
Edge -0.096%
Kelly -0.123%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.81%22.33%22.22%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.184.204.4725.64%23.91%23.81%22.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Crystal Palace (Local): 17.44%; Manchester City (Visit): 60.29%; Draw: 22.28%. For Crystal Palace (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.73. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.75, producing a positive expected value of +0.272%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
Unibet (NL)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
Svenska Spel🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 00:04
Betsson🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.72%EV -0.600%E -0.105%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -7.56%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 20:49
NordicBet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.72%EV -0.600%E -0.105%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -7.56%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 20:49
1xBet🎯5.64I 17.73%NM 17.48%EV -1.65%E -0.292%K -0.355%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.47%EV -1.73%E -1.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 22.05%EV -0.428%E -0.096%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-22 20:54
SportsBet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV -2.34%E -0.418%K -0.509%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.31%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.56%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 17.45%EV -3.22%E -0.579%K -0.707%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.54%EV -3.54%E -2.21%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-22 20:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.12%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-22 22:45
Fanatics🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 18:59
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 19:50
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 19:44
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:09
PlayUp🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 20:54
FanDuel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 22:05
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 19:54
betano_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 19:58
GTbets🎯5.49I 18.21%NM 17.51%EV -4.26%E -0.776%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.71%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.78%EV -6.00%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-22 18:59
Bovada🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 22:14
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
BetRivers🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
Casumo🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
Bally Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.39%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 22:45
Pinnacle🎯5.34I 18.73%NM 17.76%EV -6.88%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.40%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.85%EV -3.32%E -0.766%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 22:40
betPARX🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -7.58%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 22:45
PMU (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -7.58%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 22:44
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 19:40
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 22:05
LeoVegas🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 19:50
Sky Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 22:05
Dabble (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 20:54
Betclic (FR)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.91%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.63%EV -9.78%E -2.42%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 21:59
MyBookie.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -9.32%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.51%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 22:03
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.32%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.66%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 22:45
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -9.32%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.82%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.06%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.06%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 22:45
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.06%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 22:45
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -3.54%E -2.21%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 19:50
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 19:50
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:54
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:55
ReBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.90%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -12.01%E -3.04%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -14.55%E -2.97%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 20:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.06%EV -19.78%E -4.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.46%EV -9.57%E -6.38%K -19.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.48%EV -13.13%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-22 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.85%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%2.1%2026-08-23 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-08-22 20:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-08-22 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-08-22 20:00
Matchbook5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%6.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Smarkets5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.35%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%7.1%2026-08-22 22:30

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