Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crystal Palace v Manchester City

2026-08-28 19:00 UTC — EPL

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crystal Palace (Local)

Predicción 17.44%5.73momio equitativo
EV +0.272%
Ventaja +0.047%
Kelly +0.057%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.60%17.54%17.45%19.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.605.355.405.7521.74%18.69%18.52%17.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Manchester City (Visitante)

Predicción 60.29%1.66momio equitativo
EV -1.73%
Ventaja -1.06%
Kelly -2.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.14%60.12%60.33%61.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.571.571.6366.67%63.81%63.69%61.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.28%4.49momio equitativo
EV -0.428%
Ventaja -0.096%
Kelly -0.123%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.81%22.33%22.22%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.184.204.4725.64%23.93%23.81%22.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Crystal Palace (Local): 17.44%; Manchester City (Visitante): 60.29%; Empate: 22.28%. Para Crystal Palace (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.73. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.75, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.272%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
Unibet (NL)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
Svenska Spel🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 17.01%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.76%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.23%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-22 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV +0.272%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 00:04
Betsson🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.72%EV -0.600%E -0.105%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -7.56%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 20:49
NordicBet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.72%EV -0.600%E -0.105%K -0.128%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -7.56%E -1.82%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 20:49
1xBet🎯5.64I 17.73%NM 17.48%EV -1.65%E -0.292%K -0.355%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.47%EV -1.73%E -1.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 22.05%EV -0.428%E -0.096%K -0.123%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-22 20:54
SportsBet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.12%EV -2.34%E -0.418%K -0.509%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.31%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.56%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 17.45%EV -3.22%E -0.579%K -0.707%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.54%EV -3.54%E -2.21%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%EV -1.99%E -0.452%K -0.585%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-22 20:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.12%EV -4.15%E -2.61%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-22 22:45
Fanatics🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 18:59
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 19:50
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 19:44
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:09
PlayUp🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.25%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 20:54
FanDuel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 22:05
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 02:39
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 02:39
betano_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -4.09%E -0.743%K -0.908%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 02:40
GTbets🎯5.49I 18.21%NM 17.51%EV -4.26%E -0.776%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.71%EV -2.94%E -1.83%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.78%EV -6.00%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-22 18:59
Bovada🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -4.22%E -0.980%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 22:14
Grosvenor🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
BetRivers🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
Casumo🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
Bally Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.24%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -5.83%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.39%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -5.33%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 22:45
Pinnacle🎯5.34I 18.73%NM 17.76%EV -6.88%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.40%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 21.85%EV -3.32%E -0.766%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-22 22:40
betPARX🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -7.58%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 22:45
PMU (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.57%EV -7.58%E -1.43%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 22:44
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 20:00
Betr (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 19:40
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.75%E -3.01%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 22:05
LeoVegas🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 19:50
Sky Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 22:05
Dabble (AU)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 20:54
Betclic (FR)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -8.45%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.91%EV -7.76%E -5.07%K -14.65%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.63%EV -9.78%E -2.42%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 21:59
MyBookie.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -9.32%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.51%EV -5.95%E -3.82%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 22:03
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.78%EV -9.32%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.66%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 22:45
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV -9.32%E -1.79%K -2.22%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.82%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.06%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.06%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 22:45
TABtouch🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -11.06%E -2.17%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.67%E -2.11%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-22 22:45
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -3.54%E -2.21%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-22 19:50
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -6.56%E -4.23%K -11.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 19:50
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:54
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -5.35%E -3.41%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.90%E -2.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 19:55
ReBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.81%E -2.56%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.90%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -12.01%E -3.04%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 22:00
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -14.55%E -2.97%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.49%EV -7.16%E -4.65%K -13.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -6.44%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 20:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.06%EV -19.78%E -4.30%K -5.50%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.46%EV -9.57%E -6.38%K -19.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.48%EV -13.13%E -3.37%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-22 21:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.85%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%2.1%2026-08-23 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-08-22 20:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-08-22 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.19%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-08-22 20:00
Matchbook5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.90%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%6.1%2026-08-22 23:00
Smarkets5.10I 19.61%NM 18.31%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.35%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%7.1%2026-08-22 22:30

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