The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Arsenal v Chelsea

2026-09-06 15:30 UTC — EPL

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arsenal (Local)

Prediction 57.20%1.75fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.937%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.00%56.99%57.15%57.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.641.651.7264.94%61.06%60.61%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chelsea (Visit)

Prediction 18.17%5.50fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.348%
Kelly -0.427%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.62%18.42%18.21%20.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.985.005.4022.73%20.08%20.00%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.63%4.06fair odd
EV -0.510%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.168%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%24.59%24.64%25.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.754.0428.57%26.41%26.67%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arsenal (Local): 57.20%; Chelsea (Visit): 18.17%; Draw: 24.63%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.04, with an expected value of -0.510%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 57.29%EV -1.61%E -0.937%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 18.32%EV -2.24%E -0.417%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 24.39%EV -0.510%E -0.126%K -0.168%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-23 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.36%EV -3.33%E -1.97%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.29%EV -3.70%E -0.697%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.35%EV -1.99%E -0.499%K -0.667%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 15:44
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.62%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.33%EV -4.60%E -0.877%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -1.49%E -0.374%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.49%E -0.374%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 15:05
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -12.78%E -2.66%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -3.96%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 15:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -12.78%E -2.66%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -3.96%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 15:34
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.65%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 14:49
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -12.78%E -2.66%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.88%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -12.78%E -2.66%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.88%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 15:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -4.47%E -2.68%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -12.78%E -2.66%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.88%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 15:05
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.46%EV -5.04%E -3.04%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.70%EV -7.33%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.49%E -0.374%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.67%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.62%EV -1.88%E -0.348%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -5.19%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 18:34
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -2.73%E -0.690%K -0.924%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -5.51%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.42%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.04%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -3.96%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 17:59
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.60%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -16.41%E -3.57%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -7.65%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 15:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.60%EV -5.62%E -3.40%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -16.41%E -3.57%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.46%EV -7.65%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 15:34
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.42%EV -6.76%E -4.15%K -10.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -10.11%E -2.77%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -7.33%E -4.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -3.96%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 14:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.45%EV -7.33%E -4.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -4.60%E -0.877%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.65%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -7.33%E -4.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -5.51%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.88%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 18:34
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -7.33%E -4.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -6.42%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.33%E -4.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -7.65%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 15:14
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.00%EV -7.33%E -4.53%K -11.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.25%EV -20.05%E -4.56%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 15:33
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%EV -7.90%E -4.91%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.26%EV -7.33%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -3.96%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -8.48%E -5.30%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -5.19%E -1.35%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 18:34
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -8.48%E -5.30%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -9.15%E -1.83%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -7.65%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 18:34
ReBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.88%EV -8.48%E -5.30%K -14.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.84%EV -7.33%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.35%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 18:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.38%EV -9.62%E -6.09%K -16.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.78%EV -7.33%E -1.44%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -10.11%E -2.77%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.84%EV -11.34%E -7.31%K -20.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.98%EV -10.96%E -2.24%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.81%E -3.95%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-23 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 56.11%EV -11.91%E -7.73%K -22.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -18.23%E -4.05%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.69%EV -13.81%E -3.95%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-23 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 55.29%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.08%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.64%5.2%2026-08-23 18:55
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 55.89%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.59%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.52%16.9%2026-08-23 18:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 48.55%2.18I 45.87%NM 25.61%2.16I 46.30%NM 25.85%79.1%2026-08-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 48.55%2.18I 45.87%NM 25.61%2.16I 46.30%NM 25.85%79.1%2026-08-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 48.55%2.18I 45.87%NM 25.61%2.16I 46.30%NM 25.85%79.1%2026-08-23 18:55