Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

York City v Bristol Rovers

Início: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: York City 3–2 Bristol Rovers

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

York City (Local)

Previsão 41.57%2.41odd justa
EV -4.40%
Vantagem -1.91%
Kelly -3.38%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.94%41.55%41.61%42.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.142.232.232.3046.73%44.86%44.84%43.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bristol Rovers (Visitante)

Previsão 30.27%3.30odd justa
EV -2.24%
Vantagem -0.693%
Kelly -1.00%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.23

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.92%30.29%30.20%31.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.073.103.2333.33%32.55%32.26%30.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.17%3.55odd justa
EV -1.42%
Vantagem -0.404%
Kelly -0.566%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.61%28.16%28.18%29.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.273.303.5032.26%30.56%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: York City (Local): 41.57%; Bristol Rovers (Visitante): 30.27%; Empate: 28.17%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.55. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.50, com valor esperado de -1.42%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.23%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-15 09:54
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -4.23%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 09:59
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.01%EV -5.64%E -2.49%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.66%EV -5.87%E -1.89%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.33%EV -1.70%E -0.486%K -0.682%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 12:00
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -3.15%E -0.984%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 13:23
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -3.15%E -0.984%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 13:23
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.23%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 09:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:34
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 07:18
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 07:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 07:14
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 07:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 07:19
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 09:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.23%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 10:09
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 10:04
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 09:54
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.70%EV -6.89%E -3.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.92%EV -2.24%E -0.693%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.38%EV -10.43%E -3.28%K -4.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.61%EV -6.89%E -3.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -5.64%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.61%EV -6.89%E -3.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -5.64%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:20
BetUS🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.61%EV -6.89%E -3.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -5.64%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 12:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 13:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.78%EV -7.72%E -3.48%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.11%EV -6.78%E -2.20%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 13:50
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -1.42%E -0.404%K -0.566%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 13:50
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -6.17%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:48
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 13:04
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 13:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 13:50
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 11:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -7.69%E -2.52%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.27%E -3.58%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 10:09
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 13:54
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.87%EV -10.63%E -4.95%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.60%EV -11.05%E -5.16%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.72%EV -12.68%E -4.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 13:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.60%EV -11.05%E -5.16%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -9.20%E -3.07%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.72%EV -12.68%E -4.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-09 13:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.15%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25%0.5%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-08-15 13:55
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.79%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%1.4%2026-08-15 13:55