Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Salford City v Notts County

Início: 2026-04-03 14:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Salford City (Local)

Previsão 41.56%2.41odd justa
EV -3.57%
Vantagem -1.54%
Kelly -2.71%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.32

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.70%41.53%41.55%42.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.182.232.232.3245.87%44.81%44.84%43.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Notts County (Visitante)

Previsão 30.82%3.24odd justa
EV -4.46%
Vantagem -1.44%
Kelly -2.12%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.60%30.81%30.85%31.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.802.993.003.1035.71%33.48%33.33%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.62%3.62odd justa
EV -3.34%
Vantagem -0.955%
Kelly -1.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.04%27.66%27.60%29.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.343.353.5033.33%29.96%29.85%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Salford City (Local): 41.56%; Notts County (Visitante): 30.82%; Empate: 27.62%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.62. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.50, com valor esperado de -3.34%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.47%EV -3.57%E -1.54%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.04%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-03 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.47%EV -3.57%E -1.54%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.04%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-03 13:34
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-03 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 09:50
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-03 13:35
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 13:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 09:50
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -4.40%E -1.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 09:50
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.64%EV -4.82%E -2.10%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.96%EV -5.08%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.40%EV -3.89%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-03 13:40
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.43%EV -6.07%E -2.68%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.11%EV -7.23%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.46%EV -5.83%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-03 13:50
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-03 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-03 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 12:15
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-03 03:14
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -6.48%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-03 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.40%EV -6.90%E -3.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.50%EV -6.31%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-03 13:34
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:04
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:05
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -7.31%E -3.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-03 04:04
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -7.73%E -3.48%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 13:35
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -7.73%E -3.48%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -6.00%E -1.97%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-03 13:35
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-03 13:39
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 13:39
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-03 12:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-03 12:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -4.46%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -11.63%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-01 00:04
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 13:50
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 01:09
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-03 13:50
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-03 12:15
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-03 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-03 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-03 13:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-03 13:40
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-03 13:40
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -7.54%E -2.51%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.63%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-03 13:40
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.62%E -3.66%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-03 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.24%E -3.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-03 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.70%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.19%EV -13.70%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -17.15%E -5.72%K -8.58%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-03 13:40
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.67%EV -9.39%E -4.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 04:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.67%EV -9.39%E -4.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 04:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.67%EV -9.39%E -4.31%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -9.08%E -3.08%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-03 04:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-04-03 13:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-04-03 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-04-03 13:35
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-04-03 13:35
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.81%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.51%1.7%2026-04-03 13:55