La escuela de los momios

Grimsby Town v Crewe Alexandra

Inicio: 2026-04-11 14:00 UTC

Final: Grimsby Town 3–2 Crewe Alexandra

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Grimsby Town (Local)

Predicción 50.44%1.98momio equitativo
EV -3.65%
Ventaja -1.91%
Kelly -4.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.48%50.40%50.54%51.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.761.821.831.9156.82%54.83%54.64%52.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Crewe Alexandra (Visitante)

Predicción 24.48%4.08momio equitativo
EV +0.386%
Ventaja +0.094%
Kelly +0.125%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.35%24.56%24.36%26.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.503.843.804.1028.57%26.07%26.32%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.07%3.99momio equitativo
EV -0.464%
Ventaja -0.117%
Kelly -0.156%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.97

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.96%25.04%25.11%27.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.623.603.9731.25%27.64%27.78%25.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:55
Grosvenor1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:54
Unibet (NL)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:54
BetRivers1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:54
Casumo1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:55
Unibet (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:54
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:55
betPARX1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:55
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:55
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.33%EV -9.71%E -5.42%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.47%EV -10.21%E -5.74%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV +0.386%E +0.094%K +0.125%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -12.25%E -3.50%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-08 19:55
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 13:44
Virgin Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.22%E -6.37%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -13.50%E -3.91%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 19:54
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.22%E -6.37%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -13.50%E -3.91%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 19:55
LiveScore Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -11.22%E -6.37%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -2.06%E -0.516%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -13.50%E -3.91%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 19:55
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -5.67%E -3.03%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.16%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 13:49
Unibet (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 13:55
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 13:55
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 50.57%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.57%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 13:44
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 50.57%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -4.51%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 13:45
Coolbet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.66%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -5.74%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 13:54
Marathon Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -8.70%E -4.81%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.14%EV -5.98%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.65%EV -5.73%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 13:49
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 13:54
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -9.20%E -5.11%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 13:49
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -9.20%E -5.11%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.96%E -1.83%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 13:54
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.39%EV -5.67%E -3.03%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.13%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -3.47%E -0.902%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 13:45
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 13:49
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 13:55
Bet Right1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 13:55
Codere (IT)1.81I 55.25%NM 50.19%EV -8.70%E -4.81%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.22%EV -8.18%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -10.99%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 13:55
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.99%EV -3.65%E -1.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.16%EV -8.92%E -2.40%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.85%EV -9.24%E -2.55%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 13:54
Pinnacle1.89I 52.91%NM 50.33%EV -4.66%E -2.47%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.71%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.96%EV -0.464%E -0.117%K -0.156%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 13:50
NordicBet1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -5.17%E -2.75%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:45
Betsson1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -5.17%E -2.75%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 13:45
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 13:50
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 50.10%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.12%EV -8.49%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-11 13:55
888sport1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 13:50
William Hill1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 13:54
888sport (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 13:55
Mr Green (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.93%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -9.41%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 13:50
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 13:50
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -9.20%E -5.11%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 13:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.48%EV -9.20%E -5.11%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -11.86%E -3.29%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -19.77%E -6.18%K -8.99%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-11 13:49
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -13.08%E -3.68%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 13:45
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -13.08%E -3.68%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.23%E -1.96%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 13:45
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -8.19%E -4.50%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -13.08%E -3.68%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -8.49%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-11 13:45
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 49.46%EV -6.68%E -3.61%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -14.30%E -4.09%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 13:45
Everygame1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -7.69%E -4.20%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -14.30%E -4.09%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 13:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 51.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%1.2%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-04-11 13:55
Smarkets1.91I 52.36%NM 50.84%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%3.0%2026-04-11 13:55