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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Grimsby Town v Crawley Town

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Grimsby Town 2–0 Crawley Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town (Local)

Predicción 64.53%1.55momio equitativo
EV -3.20%
Ventaja -2.14%
Kelly -6.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.21%64.40%64.68%66.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.431.431.5072.46%69.71%69.93%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Crawley Town (Visitante)

Predicción 15.48%6.46momio equitativo
EV +0.640%
Ventaja +0.098%
Kelly +0.116%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.26%15.49%15.51%16.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.505.945.906.5018.18%16.84%16.95%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.99%5.00momio equitativo
EV -0.073%
Ventaja -0.015%
Kelly -0.018%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.50%20.11%19.81%22.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.544.505.0024.39%22.00%22.22%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Grimsby Town (Local): 64.53%; Crawley Town (Visitante): 15.48%; Empate: 19.99%. Para Crawley Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.46. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.640%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +0.640%E +0.098%K +0.116%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.14%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +0.640%E +0.098%K +0.116%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 20:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.14%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +0.640%E +0.098%K +0.116%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 20:50
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.96%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.41I 15.60%NM 14.71%EV -0.754%E -0.118%K -0.139%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.33%EV -2.47%E -0.506%K -0.637%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 14:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -3.23%E -0.517%K -0.615%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-16 02:20
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.21%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.02%EV -3.23%E -0.517%K -0.615%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 20:50
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.87%EV -10.30%E -7.41%K -26.41%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.65%EV -3.23%E -0.517%K -0.615%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.48%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 20:48
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.76%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 14.89%EV -3.70%E -0.594%K -0.708%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.35%EV -9.07%E -1.99%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 09:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.63%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.14%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.82%EV -4.01%E -0.646%K -0.770%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.81%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 14.96%EV -4.78%E -0.777%K -0.928%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -9.07%E -1.99%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-17 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.39%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.31%EV -5.55%E -0.910%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 10:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.39%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.31%EV -5.55%E -0.910%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 10:10
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.07%E -0.848%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 14:55
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 12:45
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 12:43
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.96%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -5.07%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 15:25
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.83%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 15:25
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.14%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -0.073%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 14:04
Fanatics🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 10:14
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 02:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 02:21
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -10.95%E -7.93%K -28.81%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -7.10%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-15 20:50
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -4.49%E -3.04%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -8.65%E -1.47%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -17.06%E -4.11%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -4.49%E -3.04%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -8.65%E -1.47%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -17.06%E -4.11%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 14:10
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.47%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-15 09:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:05
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:05
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:05
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:10
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:10
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.79%EV -8.37%E -5.89%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.96%EV -9.01%E -6.39%K -21.98%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.55%EV -10.20%E -1.76%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-18 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -3.20%E -2.14%K -6.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:45
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -3.20%E -2.14%K -6.41%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -8.07%E -1.75%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:44
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -4.49%E -3.04%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 13:45
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.07%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.77%EV -6.07%E -1.29%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:00
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 09:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 09:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -7.07%E -4.91%K -16.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 09:40
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.54%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.65%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 15:27
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.27%EV -6.43%E -4.43%K -14.29%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.70%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -18.06%E -4.40%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.03%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.59%EV -10.97%E -1.91%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.37%EV -12.06%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 08:05
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.77%EV -4.49%E -3.04%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -13.30%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.77%EV -4.49%E -3.04%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -13.30%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 04:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.57%EV -7.72%E -5.40%K -17.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -13.30%E -2.37%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-18 15:00
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -14.84%E -2.70%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.07%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 14:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.21%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%2.2%2026-09-18 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.21%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%2.2%2026-09-18 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.21%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%2.2%2026-09-18 14:10
Matchbook◎1.50I 66.67%NM 65.21%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.96%2.2%2026-09-18 14:50
Smarkets◎1.50I 66.67%NM 64.91%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%2.7%2026-09-18 15:10