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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Gillingham v Bristol Rovers

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Gillingham 3–0 Bristol Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gillingham (Local)

Predicción 26.04%3.84momio equitativo
EV -1.03%
Ventaja -0.271%
Kelly -0.368%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.18%25.98%26.01%27.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.553.503.8030.30%28.19%28.57%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bristol Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 47.49%2.11momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -2.02%
Kelly -4.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.93%47.44%47.44%48.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.891.951.952.0252.91%51.18%51.28%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.47%3.78momio equitativo
EV +0.583%
Ventaja +0.153%
Kelly +0.208%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.54%26.58%26.55%28.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.443.483.8031.25%29.04%28.78%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gillingham (Local): 26.04%; Bristol Rovers (Visitante): 47.49%; Empate: 26.47%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.78. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.583%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV +0.583%E +0.153%K +0.208%G +0.001%7.2%2026-09-18 14:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -2.06%E -0.558%K -0.764%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-16 14:01
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -4.94%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -3.39%E -0.928%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 14:00
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.14%EV -5.72%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.79%EV -5.98%E -3.02%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.07%EV -3.92%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 14:15
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.03%E -2.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-16 02:20
betfred_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.03%E -2.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 08:31
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 04:10
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 04:09
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 14:02
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -8.35%E -4.33%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 04:09
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:25
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.43%EV -10.25%E -5.42%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 17:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.03%E -2.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.03%E -2.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:25
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.03%E -2.51%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.03%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 15:25
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -5.98%E -3.02%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 08:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -5.98%E -3.02%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-17 05:05
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 09:14
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 09:15
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.77%EV -7.88%E -4.06%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 04:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.77%EV -7.88%E -4.06%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 04:10
1xBet🎯3.56I 28.09%NM 26.02%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 12:44
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.00%EV -7.80%E -2.20%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.70%EV -8.35%E -4.33%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 12:39
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 02:25
theScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 08:30
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -14.05%E -4.26%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 02:10
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.08%EV -5.98%E -3.02%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 05:05
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.83%E -4.60%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 14:15
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -3.63%E -0.982%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -8.83%E -4.60%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 14:13
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 13:05
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-16 02:26
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -4.08%E -2.02%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-16 08:05
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.24%E -1.73%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -4.08%E -2.02%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-16 08:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 08:30
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.19%EV -8.35%E -4.33%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -10.00%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-17 05:11
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -7.54%E -2.12%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.43%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-18 14:15
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-14 12:55
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-14 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-14 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.84%E -2.53%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-14 12:55
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.93%EV -6.45%E -3.28%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 14:55
BetRivers🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -6.93%E -3.53%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-14 14:55
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.10%EV -10.15%E -2.94%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.18%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 08:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.45%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.14%EV -7.88%E -4.06%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -1.03%E -0.271%K -0.368%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -7.40%E -3.80%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -15.30%E -4.78%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 07:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.30%2.08I 48.08%NM 48.05%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.65%0.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-09-18 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-09-18 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%1.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.01%1.2%2026-09-18 15:30