Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fleetwood Town v Shrewsbury Town

Inicio: 2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Final: Fleetwood Town 2–0 Shrewsbury Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fleetwood Town (Local)

Predicción 49.12%2.04momio equitativo
EV -4.21%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -4.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.86%49.27%49.06%52.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.871.881.9556.50%53.37%53.19%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shrewsbury Town (Visitante)

Predicción 23.96%4.17momio equitativo
EV +5.42%
Ventaja +1.23%
Kelly +1.60%
Crecimiento +0.087%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.92%23.76%24.15%24.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.903.854.4027.03%25.65%25.97%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.92%3.72momio equitativo
EV -3.10%
Ventaja -0.862%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.82%26.97%26.79%28.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.443.493.6030.30%29.10%28.65%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fleetwood Town (Local): 49.12%; Shrewsbury Town (Visitante): 23.96%; Empate: 26.92%. Para Shrewsbury Town (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.17. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.42%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -13.05%E -7.37%K -16.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +5.42%E +1.23%K +1.60%G +0.087%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 08:14
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -6.66%E -3.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.76%E -0.430%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:29
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -6.66%E -3.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -1.76%E -0.430%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:29
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -7.65%E -4.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -1.76%E -0.430%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 11:35
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -7.65%E -4.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -1.76%E -0.430%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 11:33
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.08%EV -7.16%E -3.79%K -8.04%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.55%EV -3.68%E -0.916%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.37%EV -3.37%E -0.939%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 11:45
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.21%E -2.16%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 05:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -6.66%E -3.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 10:15
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.09%EV -8.63%E -4.64%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 07:50
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:49
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.09%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.28%EV -4.64%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.63%EV -6.33%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 14:35
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.81%EV -8.14%E -4.35%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -4.21%E -2.16%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 17:10
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 11:38
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 11:33
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -7.65%E -4.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 10:07
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.14%EV -7.65%E -4.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.56%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 10:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.66%E -3.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.11%EV -6.66%E -3.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.33%EV -5.19%E -2.69%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.23%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 14:35
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 11:35
Grosvenor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.88%EV -11.58%E -6.43%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-04 07:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.02%EV -12.07%E -6.74%K -15.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%EV -7.75%E -2.01%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.73%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 07:50
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 11:34
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:29
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.79%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:29
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -7.65%E -4.07%K -8.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Sky Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -8.14%E -4.35%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 11:30
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -7.16%E -3.79%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 06:54
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.97%EV -8.14%E -4.35%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 17:05
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 11:35
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 11:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.84%EV -9.12%E -4.93%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 11:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.95%EV -13.05%E -7.37%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.95%EV -13.05%E -7.37%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 07:50
Bet Right🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 14:34
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 12:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -6.17%E -3.23%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 14:35
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.81%EV -8.14%E -4.35%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -10.15%E -2.71%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 07:20
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -8.14%E -4.35%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.48%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 14:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -6.66%E -3.51%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -11.35%E -3.07%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 05:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.51%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.1%2026-09-04 13:55
Matchbook◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.5%2026-09-04 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.20%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.3%2026-09-04 13:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.20%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.3%2026-09-04 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.20%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.3%2026-09-04 13:05