Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra v Walsall

Inicio: 2026-09-01 18:45 UTC

Final: Crewe Alexandra 2–2 Walsall

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Crewe Alexandra (Local)

Predicción 41.28%2.42momio equitativo
EV -3.82%
Ventaja -1.64%
Kelly -2.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.16%41.27%41.24%42.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.242.252.3346.51%44.60%44.44%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Walsall (Visitante)

Predicción 31.80%3.14momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.30%31.88%31.82%33.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.902.903.0136.36%34.47%34.48%33.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.92%3.72momio equitativo
EV -3.10%
Ventaja -0.862%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.74%26.85%26.94%28.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.393.403.6031.25%29.47%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Crewe Alexandra (Local): 41.28%; Walsall (Visitante): 31.80%; Empate: 26.92%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.72. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.60, con un valor esperado de -3.10%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.15%EV -3.82%E -1.64%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.85%EV -4.27%E -1.42%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.01%EV -4.45%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 18:19
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.16%EV -3.82%E -1.64%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.83%EV -6.49%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.01%EV -10.10%E -3.02%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.17%EV -4.23%E -1.82%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.84%EV -4.59%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.98%EV -4.72%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-01 18:30
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -6.18%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 18:30
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.06%E -2.20%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-01 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.13%EV -5.88%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.68%EV -5.86%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.14%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.13%EV -5.88%E -2.58%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.68%EV -5.86%E -1.98%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.14%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.59%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 06:25
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.59%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 06:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.59%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 13:54
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.59%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 06:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.59%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 06:25
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-01 15:49
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -6.18%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-01 06:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.18%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.14%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 06:25
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.18%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -7.14%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-01 06:25
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -6.18%E -2.09%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-01 06:25
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -3.10%E -0.862%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 18:25
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-01 13:55
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-01 13:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-01 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-01 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 14:49
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-01 18:25
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:15
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:15
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:33
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -7.12%E -3.16%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -11.18%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.36%EV -7.53%E -3.36%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.17%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 14:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.64%EV -7.95%E -3.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.47%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 18:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.07%EV -8.77%E -3.97%K -7.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.84%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -9.83%E -2.94%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-01 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.14%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-01 06:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 05:55
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 13:55
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.49%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-01 02:55
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -12.54%E -4.56%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-01 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -8.40%E -2.92%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-30 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.84%EV -9.18%E -4.17%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.52%EV -9.36%E -3.28%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -12.52%E -3.85%K -5.57%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.76%EV -10.42%E -4.80%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -13.87%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 18:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.76%EV -10.42%E -4.80%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -10.95%E -3.91%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -13.87%E -4.33%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 18:09
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -11.25%E -5.23%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.77%E -2.68%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.80%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-01 06:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-09-01 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-09-01 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-09-01 18:25
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.90%1.9%2026-09-01 18:40
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.69%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.55%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.76%2.4%2026-09-01 18:35