La escuela de los momios

Cheltenham Town v Gillingham

Inicio: 2026-04-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Cheltenham Town 2–1 Gillingham

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Cheltenham Town (Local)

Predicción 34.45%2.90momio equitativo
EV -3.54%
Ventaja -1.27%
Kelly -1.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.40%34.47%34.53%36.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.652.652.8040.00%37.68%37.74%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Gillingham (Visitante)

Predicción 35.66%2.80momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -2.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.90%35.68%35.61%37.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.602.602.6940.00%38.46%38.46%37.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.89%3.35momio equitativo
EV -2.85%
Ventaja -0.876%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.73%29.85%29.86%31.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.983.123.153.2533.56%32.01%31.75%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.80I 35.71%NM 34.10%EV -3.54%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.49%EV -4.08%E -1.52%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.41%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-14 18:30
Coral2.80I 35.71%NM 34.03%EV -3.54%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.65%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -2.85%E -0.876%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-14 17:04
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -3.54%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -5.84%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-14 18:20
LowVig.ag2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -3.54%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.43%EV -5.86%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 18:00
BetOnline.ag2.80I 35.71%NM 33.40%EV -3.54%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.43%EV -5.86%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 18:00
BetUS2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -8.83%E -2.89%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 18:01
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -10.85%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -10.85%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 18:01
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -10.85%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 18:00
BetMGM2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -10.85%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-14 17:05
1xBet2.74I 36.50%NM 33.81%EV -5.61%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.09%EV -5.86%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -10.92%E -3.66%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-14 18:00
Marathon Bet2.74I 36.50%NM 33.81%EV -5.61%E -2.05%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.09%EV -5.86%E -2.22%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -10.92%E -3.66%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-14 18:01
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 34.40%EV -6.30%E -2.32%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -4.44%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -8.83%E -2.89%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 18:20
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.40%EV -6.30%E -2.32%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -4.44%E -1.65%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -8.83%E -2.89%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 18:20
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -2.85%E -0.876%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-14 18:19
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-14 17:00
Bovada2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -9.07%E -3.56%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-14 18:18
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 17:00
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 17:00
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 17:00
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 17:00
Tipico (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 17:01
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -10.85%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-14 18:18
Betr (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -8.71%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.50%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 18:29
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -8.71%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.50%E -2.08%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 18:30
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -8.71%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-14 17:00
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -8.71%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -9.07%E -3.56%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.88%EV -8.83%E -2.89%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 15:30
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -8.71%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.07%E -3.56%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-14 18:20
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 34.22%EV -8.71%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.07%E -3.56%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.22%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-14 18:19
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 34.97%EV -9.40%E -3.57%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.37%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-14 18:20
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -6.57%E -2.51%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -2.85%E -0.876%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 18:30
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -9.07%E -3.56%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-14 18:20
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.85%E -4.34%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-14 18:00
theScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-14 18:00
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -5.84%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-14 18:29
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -10.43%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-14 18:00
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
BetRivers2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:10
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:10
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.15%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.05%EV -6.22%E -2.36%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 07:09
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -13.88%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -5.84%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-09 07:09
Virgin Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -13.88%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -5.84%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-09 07:09
LiveScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -13.88%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.90%EV -7.29%E -2.80%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.81%EV -5.84%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-09 07:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.69%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-04-14 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.0%2026-04-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.0%2026-04-14 18:20
Matchbook2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.54%1.0%2026-04-14 18:30
Smarkets2.84I 35.21%NM 34.61%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.78%1.7%2026-04-14 18:20